Treasury yields rose again overnight, dragging down global stocks. On the A stock market on March 4, core asset stocks all fell, with the “Mao” index closing down nearly 5%, Moutai down 5%, Wuliangye and Ningde Times down more than 6%. Zheshang Securities previously said, logically, since the opening of the land stock, the relatively high foreign holding of the company and the trend of the US stock correlation, the US bond yield rise is mainly through the impact of the trend of the US stock, and then on the A-share foreign holding of the relatively high company disturbance.
So the next, and domestic investors are closely related to the A share, national debt market how to go? How should we lay it out? A number of brokerage institutions recently give views.
Guosheng Securities: offense to defense, focus on low valuation plate opportunities
Guosheng Securities pointed out that the 10-year Treasury yield broke through the important 1.5 percent mark, leading to the change of market risk appetite. In the short term, the fluctuation of Treasury interest rate will have an impact on the global stock index in the second half. A share fund group shares after A short-term sharp fall, prone to: the net value of the fund fell – investors A large number of redemptions – the fund manager had to sell the holding stock, leading to the negative feedback of the stock price continued to fall. In the short term, the overall risk has not been fully released, the current profit expectations should be lowered, offense to defense. In operation, temporarily avoid the high valuation, high expectations, high rise stocks, facing the current performance vacuum period and the double pressure of liquidity tightening, it is difficult to form a further catalyst for the stock price rise. It is a right choice to pay attention to some small and medium-sized market cap stocks with little rise, insufficient attention and poor expectations, as well as defensive sectors that have been undervalued for a long time, such as banks, real estate and insurance.
Zhongtai Securities: The volatile state of the global stock market is likely to repeat, and the allocation advice in March revolves around two clues
Zhongtai Securities previously pointed out that on the whole, before the US bond interest rate stabilizes, the state of violent volatility in the global stock market may be repeated, the duration may be long, but the index adjustment space is expected to be small. The main recommendations for March configuration thinking revolve around two threads. First, new infrastructure, carbon neutral, high-end manufacturing and other sectors are expected to be catalyzed at the policy end; For example, due to the impact of the “local Chinese New Year” policy, food and entertainment consumption data exceeded expectations, food, cinema and other industries are expected to increase, downstream industry utilization rate exceeds expectations, resulting in the continued rise of raw material prices, chemical, non-ferrous and other industries are expected to increase. March Gold Stock Portfolio: Kweichow Moutai, Vanke, Chuanzhi Education, Huo Xinwang, Yingqu Technology, Baotou Steel, Taihe New Material (002254.SZ), Zoomlion, Lianhong Xinke, GEM Fing50ETF.
Societe Generale Securities: grasp the recovery market, long cycle manufacturing plate core assets
Societe generale securities had pointed out that the recent U.S. yields rapid ascent bring certain disturbance on the market, especially in the early stage of the hot plate appear certain fluctuation and adjustment, but from the perspective of medium-term outlook for global perspective, the recovery is still the market’s current keywords, economic fundamentals continued recovery, a hierarchical pro-cyclical performance is expected to usher in a global resonance, defying market disturbance, grasp the market recovery, do more cycle manufacturing plate core assets. Continued economic recovery is the main market driver, in favor of the upstream and mid-stream procyclical sectors. The plate configuration focuses on two main lines :(1) select global recovery + “Bidentrade” recovery main line +PPI uptrend, pay attention to the chemical industry, non-ferrous metals, machinery, home appliances, new energy vehicles, semiconductors and other growth chain of mid-upstream materials and equipment; (2) Service consumption benefiting from the gradual recovery from the epidemic, such as film and television, medical beauty, aviation, catering and tourism, tax exemption, medicine, etc.
CITIC Securities: to maintain the 10-year bond yield in the range of 3% to 3.3% volatility judgment unchanged
Citic securities said, combining with the current china-us spreads and the spreads of China and the United States since 2019 two sharply expand, we think that the performance of the RMB exchange rate is an important difference between the current and historical period, under the background of the current RMB exchange rate is still strong, from U.S. yields uplink can lead to the spread of narrowing or appropriate to a certain extent, alleviate the pressure of the appreciation of the yuan, to maintain reasonable balance of RMB exchange rate stability, while maintaining monetary policy in China “is not” policy tone, the current spread level of China and the United States or is still in the range of affordable, Therefore, the impact of a rapid narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US caused by rising US yields on the domestic bond market may be relatively neutral. We maintain our judgment that 10-year Treasury yields fluctuate between 3%-3.3%.
Credit futures: the current long – end interest – rate Treasury bonds have a certain allocation value
Credit futures believes that this round of rapid rise in US bond yields is mainly driven by the gradual improvement of the US epidemic and the expected acceleration of economic recovery under the reflation expectations, rather than the impact of monetary policy tightening. In terms of both inflation expectations and real interest rates, Treasury bonds may stabilize in the short term. Overseas after the Spring Festival inflationary impact on the domestic bond market trading co., LTD., the domestic bond market’s expectations of neutral monetary policy has been relatively full, agencies generally short duration and low leverage, institutions expected for the bond market adjustment space is not pessimistic, the long side interest rates have a certain configuration value, the recent stock market and commodity adjustment, the weaker risk appetite for bonds to order form must be positive. However, in the medium and long term, recovery and inflation are still the macro main line in 2021. The pattern of gradual economic repair and slow exit of policies still forms a certain pressure on the bond market. After the temporary equilibrium of the bond market, it is still necessary to be alert to the gradual release of bad news such as the supply of interest rate debt, vaccine and upward inflation, and the long-end yield is still inclined to shock pattern. And the bond market on the capital side is expected to be relatively full short bond certainty is still relatively strong, the yield curve may have a small chance to do steep.
Reprint indicated source：Shine Trader Limited Live information