Facing the 14th five-year Plan, which advanced industries will embrace greater growth opportunities?How to lay out listed companies with pioneer advantages in high-growth industries?
At 7 PM on November 8th, Yao Zhipeng, chief investment officer of Harvest Fund Manufacturing industry, and Fang Yinliang, global partner of Roland Berger and vice President of Greater China region, will come to the CBN studio to reveal 2021 investment opportunities and review the wonderful contents.
The new energy industry chain is long, from the whole vehicle to the spare parts, to the electrolyte, diaphragm and positive pole in the middle reaches, and has now reached the upstream resources.Which segments will benefit the most?How to understand the sequence of benefits and grasp the investment opportunities?Yao Zhipeng, chief investment officer of Harvest Fund Manufacturing industry, explains this at the meeting on CBN Cloud.
Yao Zhipeng: If you look at it from the perspective of investment, there is a sequence of benefits of the industrial chain and different stages of development of the industry.If you look at the time, you look at the length of time first, say a relatively short time of three to five years.If it is a rapid growth period of three to five years, in fact, all major links of the industry, including leading enterprises, will benefit, because this stage is to solve the problem of insufficient supply, which has been the development of many emerging industries in history.But in the longer term, you have to find out who has the best chance of the industry eventually becoming a traditional industry, for example?For example, 10 years later, when the whole world is smart cars or new energy vehicles, whose chances are more.This requires a longer cycle. After three or five years of rapid growth, all the shortages of the industrial chain have come to an end. We must find the high point of the so-called industrial chain in the medium and long term, the most important link of the industrial chain, the one that is most likely to form the core barrier and the one that already has high-quality enterprises in this link.These are the more important ones.So it really depends on how long you look.In the early stage of electrification, the development of intelligentization is further. At this time, the early stage of intelligentization is subject to investment, and it is not clear whose intelligent system will do well.But in the middle and late stage of electric, who will occupy the leading position of intelligent has been seen more clearly, this time intelligent may be more certain.So, there’s a foundation, and then there’s a progression.For example, if you look upstream, such as resources and other upstream links, in the medium and long term, historically in the mature stage, the middle and upstream generally do not have much opportunity.Because if you look far away, if there’s a scarcity or a price anomaly in the resource industry, there must be some new technology to replace it, and eventually you’ll have a solution.So, I think it has something to do with how long you look at the industry chain, and what stage you are in and what links you value.
The promotion of new energy vehicles began in 2009, and its ownership and penetration rate have gradually increased.After the “14th and 5th five-year plan”, the degree of benefit, the stage of benefit and the subdivision field of benefit all changed accordingly.In terms of hydrogen energy in new energy sources, what is the current stage?Where will the future investment opportunities be concentrated?Daniel Fong, global partner and vice President of Greater China at Roland Berger, Shared his views.
Yinliang Fang: Compared with passenger cars, hydrogen fuel cells may be developed more rapidly in commercial vehicles.There are several reasons. First, the last round of pure electric development actually takes passenger cars as the mainstream, not to mention commercial vehicles. In commercial vehicles, take trucks and medium and heavy trucks for example, their application scenarios are not particularly compatible with pure electric vehicles, which leads to a relatively slow pace of this market segment.However, in terms of future application scenarios, in fact, taking trunk line logistics of medium and long distance as an example, this part of application scenario is relatively consistent with the whole hydrogen fuel cell.Because the difference between hydrogen fuel cells and traditional pure electric vehicles is that infrastructure needs to be reinvested, unlike the old grid itself, where hydrogen storage, transport and refuelling require additional investment.In this part of the long-distance trunk line, the application scenario is relatively narrow, and the investment in the infrastructure construction is relatively concentrated, which is a good opportunity here.At the same time, there is also a gap in the market for the new energy of Zhongzhong Truck. To a certain extent, there will be a good breakthrough through the supplement of hydrogen fuel cell.It can also be quickly seen from the market dynamics, including the domestic CNHTC and some other leading auto companies, including the overseas Mercedes Benz, Hyundai, etc., have released their hydrogen fuel cell medium-weight truck model, you can see, everyone has been aware of this opportunity.
There are many new industries that rise and fall in the blink of an eye.How to grasp the investment opportunity at the early stage of growth in such a rapid period of technological development and industry pace?Listen to Yao Zhipeng, chief investment officer of Harvest Fund Manufacturing, mention two key dimensions.
Zhi-peng yao: a dimension is to look at the bottom, can an industry, a new industry development in the end, must want to see the underlying technology source including application source is able to eventually get the vast majority of consumer’s final approval, whether car or any other industry, this is a virtual, relatively qualitative point.In addition, there will also be quantitative index observation, typically the index of permeability.We know a lot of things that are emerging, both in industry and consumer goods and there’s a lot of niche products that are emerging that are shooting stars, that are quickly forgotten.Here’s a communication tip.If an industry has a penetration rate of more than 10 percent, 10 percent to 15 percent, most industries will eventually become established industries in the field.The core reason is that, from the perspective of communication, making a joke, for example, if ten people get together for dinner, if someone buys a new mobile phone or a new cosmetics, there will be some discussion around, and it will have the greatest influence on the nearest few people.If ten men often party, often meet, after a period of time, considering the purchase cycle, such as car purchase cycle is very long, and commodity purchase cycle is very short, commodities may be the people around you in a two months later, even the order with you a few weeks later, this kind of human-to-human transmission cases, this product has become the mainstream of the industry.However, if the penetration rate is very low, only 100 people can spread a person. For example, if you see a person using a new mobile phone, you may not see the second person half a year or a year later. It is hard to say whether this product can be developed or not.Therefore, permeability is a very important indicator, from the early embryonic stage to the growth stage to enter a trend upward. The important criterion is that it will reach this stage when it enters the key permeability index.The penetration rate of each industry is different. It does not mean that every industry will go up to 10%. Some industries may go up to 15% and some up to 20%, which is about such a range, which is an important indicator to judge the development stage of the industry.
In the field of new energy, which subsectors have developed to have growth, but their certainty has also been reflected?Which industries are still dark horses and are expected to become industry leaders in the future?Harvest fund manufacturing industry investment director Yao Zhipeng brings detailed interpretation.
Yao Zhipeng: I think it is still in the “dark horse” stage to focus on autonomous driving and intelligence, or the white horse which is in the lead is not good enough to crush others.But for partial electrification this piece, in 2009 China began to push new energy vehicles, from 2014 to 2016 have a coach and the automation of urban taxi, that time is energizes, a lot of capital into the many links of the hundreds of enterprise reshuffle to register now more than a dozen, 20 companies, but given the enterprise actual supply ability, really is a few enterprises.In this process, a lot of enterprises have been screened out, the head is very obvious.However, there is still a dark horse in the new stage of trying. The dark horse in everyone’s eyes may be the white horse in the future and become the leader of this industry. However, its enterprise scale is relatively small and its strength is not strong enough.