On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, Moutai stood at 2,600 yuan, with a market value of 3.27 trillion yuan, making Maotaixiang technology famous.
As of March 2, Kweichow Moutai sharply adjusted, down to 2058 yuan, people tremble, have talked about Kweichow Moutai 2000 yuan may be impossible to protect.
Across the ocean, as the United States printed unlimited money, Bitcoin hit $57,000 at one point, before dropping about $10,000 from its peak.
Musk Hardcore Cargo, Ark Goddess is bullish on Bitcoin to $400,000.
Munger, on the other hand, has taken a stand against Bitcoin, arguing that it is an artificial gold alternative and too unstable to be the world’s medium of exchange.
As the two most dazzling targets in the investment field, which one will be more worth investing in the next 20 years?
Kweichow Moutai: gradually approaching the safety margin, the next 20 years annualized rate of return is about 10%+
I don’t want to go into details about how great Moutai is, but here’s the article: Why not buy Kweichow Moutai if you can’t make 30% a year investing in stocks?
In the performance forecast of Kweichow Moutai, the profit of Kweichow Moutai is 45.5 billion yuan in 2020, up 10% year on year, and the revenue is also up 10% year on year.
But Moutai’s share price jumped 134 percent between 2020 and before the Chinese New Year holiday. Although the certainty of Moutai’s future performance cannot be shaken, the rapid rise of the stock price has greatly overdrawn the future growth space, and the post-holiday pullback is a normal valuation return.
After a sharp correction of more than 20%, does Kweichow Moutai already have the investment value?
Source: Essence Securities
In the latest research report of Anxin Securities, the net profit of Kweichow Moutai is expected to be 54.85 billion yuan in 2021, 66.71 billion yuan in 2022, and the net profit of Zhongtai Securities is expected to be 55.27 billion yuan in 2021 and 64.59 billion yuan in 2022.
Based on the net profit of Kweichow Moutai of 55 billion yuan in 2021, the current market value is 2.59 trillion yuan, equivalent to 47.1 times of earnings ratio.
The net profit of Kweichow Moutai in 2022 is calculated at 65 billion yuan, and its current market value is 2.59 trillion yuan, equivalent to 39.8 times of earnings ratio.
Is that price-to-earnings ratio still high?
Looking at the historical price/earnings ratio (TTM), 40 times was once the ceiling for Kweichow Moutai’s valuation. After 2020, as the value of Moutai is more and more recognized by the market, this valuation ceiling has been broken, and Moutai’s earnings ratio of 40 times will never return.
Is it realistic to buy Kweichow Moutai at less than 40 times earnings? A P/E ratio of 40 can be seen as Moutai’s margin of safety.
Warren Buffett once said; “Choose the best company and be a friend of time”, we make a simple calculation of the long-term profits of Kweichow Moutai:
Assuming a 15 per cent increase in profits over the next 20 years, net profits would reach Rmb744.7bn in 2040.
Calculated by 25 times PE, Moutai’s market value will reach 18,616.9 billion yuan in the future. If the current market value of 2.59 trillion is calculated, in 20 years, the market value of Moutai will increase by 7.19 times.
7.19 times over 20 years. Is everyone happy with that? Sounds good, but the actual annualized return is “only” 10.37%.
Kweichow Maotai is too deep, but even so, the long-term yield is still much better than buying a money fund. But long-term expected returns of just over 10 per cent are unlikely to satisfy greedy investors.
Bitcoin: entered the public view in 2013, 2014 to date, slightly better than Maotai earnings!
From Baidu’s search index and media index, Bitcoin entered the public view at the end of 2013. As for the era when one dollar can buy several Bitcoins, we do not make statistics. It is obvious that there is survivor bias.
2013 was the craziest year for Bitcoin. From the opening price of 13.5 dollars at the beginning of the year to the closing price of 754 dollars on the last trading day of the end of the year, the annual increase was nearly 56 times, which made it possible to get rich in one year, and thus Bitcoin came into the view of everyone.
From 2014 to the Spring Festival of 2020, based on the closing price of $47,228 on February 13, 2021, Bitcoin has achieved a 62.63 times increase. Over the same period, Kweichow Moutai rose 60.97 times, about the same as Bitcoin.
In the next 20 years, which one is more worth investing in, Guizhou Moutai or Bitcoin?
According to the simple calculation above, in the next 20 years, Kweichow Moutai will increase by about 71.9 times, with an annualized return of about 10.37%.
For the currency, the logic of bullish and bearish, here don’t do evaluation, only make a assumption: if the currency prices over the next 20 years to ano goddess of $400000, present price to $50000, 20 years COINS will rise 8 times, annualized yield could reach 10.96%, the yield is almost the same with guizhou maotai. If you count 21 million bitcoin coins, the total market value would be $8.4 trillion.
The total GDP of the United States in 2019 is 21.4 trillion US dollars. In 2020, due to the impact of the epidemic, the total GDP of the United States will decline. Assuming a constant 2% GDP growth rate from 2020 to 2040, the U.S. GDP would reach $32.4 trillion by 2040. At that point, bitcoin’s market capitalization will account for 25.9 percent of U.S. GDP.
When Elon Musk starts to dominate the currency circle, when the tide of monetary easing in the United States will eventually fade, when Moutai is still difficult to ask for public complaints, 20 years later, who will lead the country with Moutai and Bitcoin?