“Fund” frequency hot search, the fund manager successfully “out of the circle”, with a number of fans support group.
In fact, “star chase” of more than young base people, there are brokerage sellers analysts. And these analysts have been studying star fund managers for years, long before they went out of business.
Zhang Kun from Yi Fangda Fund, Fu Pengbo from Ruiyuan Fund, Xie Zhiyu from Xingquan Fund… A number of public offering investment leaders with excellent long-term performance are the key research objects of the sell-side analysis team.
These brokerage analysts through dozens of pages, tens of thousands of words of graphic research reports, detailed “reveal” fund managers managed portfolio asset allocation, fund managers position analysis and style factor exposure, etc.
Societe Generale’s quantitative team exposed Zhang Kun two years ago
According to public information, as early as December 2018, Ren Tong and Yao Ziwei, analysts at Industrial Securities, published a research report that exposed Zhang Kun of E Fund.
The research report is 14 pages in total. It mainly analyzes the basic situation, product performance, stock timing and risk preference of E-Fund, which is the representative work of Zhang Kun’s longest management period. It is worth mentioning that the report has been read more than 1600 times on Wind’s platform.
Research reports pointed out that as of the end of the second quarter of 2018, the size of the small and medium cap of Efonda was on the rise, and it was favored by institutional investors in the last two years. High position operation of products, high concentration of holdings, heavy positions accounted for about 60%, the number of holdings is not more than 60, and the turnover is significantly lower than the industry average level.
Style preference, Yifonda small – and medium-cap overall preference of large market capitalization, low beta, low leverage stocks. Since 2017, the fund style has been stable, with a clear preference for large-cap, growth and momentum effect stocks.
Photo source: Industrial Securities Research Daily
In terms of product performance, the excess return rate of Zhang Kun has been 129% since he took office until December 2018, ranking top 4% in the same category. From a single year point of view, almost all calendar years beat the market. Fund performance volatility is low, retracement is better than the market, the extreme environment is more resistant.
From the perspective of the distribution function of excess returns, most quarterly excess returns fall on the right side. The winning quarter gets an average of 7% excess returns, while the losing quarter gets -5%, showing good profitability.
In fact, SocGen Ren Tong quantitative team is not the only brokerage analyst team studying Zhang Kun.
In June 2019, half a year after the publication of the above research report, Orient Securities FOF series of research will also study Zhang Kun. According to the team, Zhang prefers food and beverage (27%), medicine (13%), home appliances (9%) and other large consumer industries based on the historical average of allocation ratio. The latest 2018 annual report holding results, large consumption is still the industry with the highest proportion of Zhang Kun’s allocation, especially food and beverage allocation proportion of 37% is much higher than other industries.
Obviously, this research paper is also very popular, with the latest reading on Wind platform alone reaching 1,200 times.
Until December 2020, Bank of China Securities released a new research report on Zhang Kun De, which is also the latest research report on Zhang Kun.
Guo Jun, a securities analyst with Bank of China Securities Financial Engineering Team, wrote, “From the perspective of the investment style of fund managers, Zhang Kun’s overall investment style in recent years focuses on the growth of the market and the rotation of mid-market value. In 19 years, Zhang Kun’s positions mainly showed the characteristics of mid-market value. After the outbreak of the epidemic, his starting style gradually transitioned to the growth of the market. As of November 2020, its investment style has shifted to large-cap growth-oriented, supplemented by mid-cap value, with a small amount of small-cap value style.”
Photo source: Bank of China Securities Research Daily
From the perspective of fund manager ability circle, Zhang Kun’s ability circle mainly focuses on consumption, medicine and machinery sectors, and he seldom dabbles in other sectors. Zhang Kun management of the fund positions focused on consumer, pharmaceutical, mechanical plate. The corresponding first-level industries include food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology, transportation, automobile and other industries.
Apart from dabbling in cycles and property infrastructure early in his career as a fund manager, Mr Zhang has little exposure to other sectors and industries. In recent years, the hot consumption and pharmaceutical stocks have also played a positive role in promoting Zhang Kun’s investment performance.
Analysis of China Merchants Securities Xie Zhiyu:
Left layout, strict control of risk
In addition to Zhang Kun, Xing Quan Fund Xie Zhiyu also obtained brokerage analysts “chase after”.
In September 2019, Zeng Kailing, an analyst of China Merchants Securities, published a research report entitled “Survey Summary of Xie Zhiyu of Xingquan Fund and Analysis of Investment Style”.
The research paper points out that compared with the index, it can be found that Xie Zhiyu’s excess return relative to the CSI 500 index declined rapidly at the peak stage of the index in May 2015. Xie Zhiyu carried out profit stopping operation and paid attention to risks while pursuing excess return. In the second half of 2015, excess returns were the most obvious in the volatile market.
Xie Zhiyu mainly invests from the bottom up, and the big macro trend will also be combined into the portfolio construction.
From industries to individual stocks, some industries with large demand space will be identified and studied and tracked with a longer term vision. In terms of stock selection, there are 50-100 stocks that are tracked for a long time. In addition, there are many sources of stocks (road shows, road shows, in-depth reports, etc.).
According to Xie Zhiyu at the time, the long period will do timing, in the market is very high, very low point timing. In 2015, we chose the timing; In 2018, because risks cannot be recognized in advance, there was no timing.
China Merchants Securities Research Report pointed out that from the perspective of the concentration of the top ten stocks, Xingquan Hemerun and Xingquan Asset Light maintained a low concentration during the period of 2015-2017Q1, and the concentration of holdings did not increase along with the market rise, which reflects the risk control consciousness of fund managers. Since the beginning of Q2 2017, the concentration of fund positions has been improved, showing different investment styles.
Photo source: China Merchants Securities Research Daily
Last December, Bank of China Securities also published a research report on Xie Zhiyu. Research newspaper pointed out that from the investment style of fund managers, Xie Zhiyu preferred growth stocks.
In most of their career time, their positions have obvious positive exposure to growth-style stocks, and obvious negative exposure to large-cap value style, which lasts for a long time. After the outbreak of the epidemic last year, in response to the downward pressure in the first quarter, the negative exposure of the market value was gradually reduced. After the middle of its position style is still back to the growth style.
From the ability circle of fund managers, Xie Zhiyu’s ability circle is wide, and the investment allocation of various sectors is relatively balanced. At the same time, it is relatively balanced, slightly biased to the configuration of photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industry.
BOC Securities “Research” Fu Pengbo:
Pure growth fund manager
Guo Jun of Bank of China Securities pointed out in a research report published at the end of last year that Fu prefers growth stocks and holds them for a long time to grow together with the enterprise. In most of their career time, their positions have obvious positive exposure to growth-style stocks, and obvious negative exposure to large-cap value style, which lasts for a long time.
Since Fu Pengbo managed the first product of Ruiyuan Fund for more than a year, his exposure to large-cap growth style has increased, while his exposure to medium-cap growth and small-cap growth style factors has slightly decreased. For the value style factor is still not matched.
Photo source: Bank of China Securities Research Daily
From the ability circle of fund managers, Fu Pengbo’s ability circle is wide, and the investment allocation of various sectors is relatively balanced. At the same time of relative equilibrium, Fu Pengbo mainly preferred to configure TMT plate in recent years. The allocation proportion of the TMT plate for a long time to maintain more than 30%, and flexible position changes.
Fu prefers to hold stocks for a long time. For example, he bought Tonghua Dongbao in 2013 when he was a fund manager at Xingquan Capital. After that, he kept increasing his position to the first and still held it until he left in 2018, during which Tonghua Dongbao increased by nearly 700%.
In fact, it is understood that in the past decade or more of his career, Fu Pengbo basically does not carry out timing operation, and his positions are basically maintained at more than 80% all the year round.
However, there are certain times when Fu Pengbo makes small timing moves. For example, after the second quarter of 2011, Fu Pengbo’s position decreased slightly from about 90% before to below 85%. Fu Pengbo in the annual report also took the initiative to mention: “2011, we have been focusing on reducing and controlling the position.”
In addition, Fu also made small timing in the second half of 2015, reducing his position from 93% in the second quarter of 2015 to 82% in the third quarter.
Review of Fu Pengbo’s operations in recent quarters, he has always chosen to stick to the high position, and adhere to grasp the long-term development trend of the society and from bottom to top to select companies with entrepreneurial spirit and excellent management ability.