It doesn’t have the shock of 6,124, nor the darkest hour of 1,664, nor the memorable one-thousandshare halting of 2015, but it has 1,796 individual stocks that have fallen into the abyss amid a frenzy of very few “institutional groups.”
February 4, the day after the start of spring, is just a week away from the Chinese New Year. Many old investors did not wait for the legendary “Spring Festival red envelope”, but under the “siphon effect” of few group stocks such as Moutai, they once again received a strong green “disappointment”.
“Miserable!” “, “This Market Is Extremely Distorted and Tear”, “Amazing January: A Crash Bull Market”… This day, even has been calm, rational several private equity institutions also began to use such a title, vent on the recent extreme market some mood.
This is the carnival of a small group of institutions, also is the elegy of numerous small and medium-sized individual investors. In the capital market, the play of A shares has experienced many times “butterfly change” – foreign investment influx, quantitative trading, institutional head is changing the inherent investment ecology of A shares, the past experience of retail investors has been difficult to put to good use.
A few years from now, when investors look back at the A-share market at the start of 2021, they may marvel at the sheer force of market forces. Like it or not, de-retailisation of A-shares under A full registration system is accelerating, even if the process seems brutal.
A “sauce” success into ten thousand shares cry, retail, private sentiment “out of control”
A share of 2330 yuan, a single day trading volume of 14.6 billion yuan, the total market value of 2915.447 billion yuan…… A few years ago, you would not even dream of these numbers, really happened to Kweichow Moutai. On February 4, Kweichow Moutai surged 5.98%, with its market value approaching 3 trillion yuan.
On the same day, Shanghai index slightly down 0.44%, insurance guard 3500 points. However, only 868 of the 4, 166 stocks in the two markets were in red, while 3, 230 stocks fell. Among them, the number of more than 5% decline as high as 411. More profoundly, the 1,796 stocks are below the 2,440 they were two years ago.
“I’m crying. I gave up the idea of saving for a down payment a few years ago and now I’ve decided to save for Moutai.” After the closing bell, a shareholder in the Shuimu stock forum mocking, causing a lot of people’s resonance. “Some people posted angrily:” a sauce work into a million tears, I have already cried out, has lost crazy!” .
Acme market, the mood “out of control” more than retail? At noon on February 4th, Xu Xiaofeng, executive director of Dun ‘an Asset, released the public number “this market has been extremely distorted and torn”, joking that the whole market capital is to continue the life of the liquor carrier fleet, this market has been extremely distorted and torn.
From 10:28 a.m. to 19:44 p.m., Xu Xiaofeng posted 17 articles in Moment, including doggerel poems such as “Liquor stocks rise in the sky, technology stocks fall into the sea”, and “Hugging together led to a stock market crash” and “It’s no use, the trend is gone”. There are less jokes and more curse between the lines.
Tonight, the “investment bank master brother” in the public account pushed a word title of the article – “miserable!” . Recently, A shares are really miserable! If you look at the index, you will feel that everything is booming, but if you turn over the individual stocks, you will find what is terrible!
The median gain in both cities was -11.4%! 3,088 stocks are falling! 823 stocks fell more than 20%. Which tickets are going up? Are the top leaders in all walks of life, commonly known as various “Mao”. These “maos”, in turn, are the objects of the institutions’ solidarity.
In the eyes of investment bankers, the bull market in the past two years is actually a “bear’s body and bull’s head” — a small number of stocks rose sharply, while most stocks did not rise or fell sharply. Buy the right stock is a bull market, buy the wrong stock is completely bear market.
Zhang Kun Fund Rises for Five Days, Accelerating the “De-Retail” of Quantitative Trading
In the largest heavy stocks – Kweichow Moutai surge helped, on February 4, “100 billion fund manager” Zhang Kun managed by the net value of the Yi Fang Da small and medium cap fund rose 0.48%, this is the fund has recorded positive growth for five consecutive trading days.
In the four seasons of Yifangda, Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe Stock, Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye are its four largest heavy stocks, accounting for nearly 40% of the positions. His net worth has risen steadily this week, even as he trailed the Shanghai airport, which fell by the daily limit for three consecutive days.
In a lot of people complain about this day, the net value of the partial stock fund has also been released, as of the financial news agency reporter, in more than 1400 funds, there are more than 200 net realized rise, most of the fund net value fell between 0%-2%, the deepest decline in the fund is only 4%.
Holding together for heating, diversifying investment, easy to rise and resist falling…… These natural attributes of public funds make a lot of experienced retail investors start to “go to” the embrace of public funds, especially in the face of such an extreme market, this idea is more deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
Over the past few months, and hot style funds also contend with the same head quantitative private placement. For example, the pull of the billions of quantitative private investment 汯 quantitative and sixty billion magic square. Private Pai Pai network latest data show that in 2021, quantitative private equity has reached 11 billion, full of money.
“On average, for every five stocks you buy, one is sold to you by a machine; Similarly, for every five stocks you sell, one is bought by a machine.” Not long ago, a top private equity executive, one of the four “quantitative Kings”, revealed during an online road show.
Data show that the management scale of the entire quantitative private equity is about 110 billion in 2017, 520 billion in the third quarter of 2020, and should be over 600 billion by the end of 2020, while the proportion of it in the whole securities private equity fund rapidly increased from 4.8% in 2017 to 15.7% in the third quarter of 2020, accounting for two times.
In the future, if you still routinely play against a sophisticated machine to do the opponent set, what do you think the winning rate will be? The above private placement rhetorical question, although now the vast majority of the quantitative company is the original technical school to earn money, after quantitative investment will certainly go to earn fundamental school of money.
“Stock crash type bull market”, the future of retail investors?
Is it to pursue the high market value of “institutional group stocks”, or stick to the “blood loss” of small and medium-sized market cap stocks? Face the market that disintegrate so, many individual investors decide to close door angrily to bid farewell to A, also have individual investors to choose to surrender, follow the pace of fund.
“If you don’t get together with an institution, or if you don’t buy a fund, it’s hard to make money in those two years.” In this regard, a private equity manager words earnestly said. Under the registration system, he thinks, many small bills will be reduced to penny stocks, and the general trend will be to group white horses.
Referring to Hong Kong stocks, the market capitalization of the latter 50% of the stocks, trading volume only accounted for less than 1% of the whole market. In contrast, A shares accounted for 50% after the stock trading volume and more than 30%. In the future, many companies with poor fundamentals in A shares are likely to become “fairy stocks”.
Some argue that “white horse” is just a short-term marketing style. According to the above private equity managers, it is not. A share registration system is being implemented, and there will be more listings in the future. At present, there are 4,000. In a few years, there will be 10,000.
However, investors’ research energy and capital are limited, so they can only “focus on the big and small”, concentrated investment in a few core assets. Therefore, the white horse group will be the future medium – to long-term trend. But, with the change of times, the object of the group will change. This year everyone will stick to new energy. Maybe next year they will stick to computers.
Where to go for small and medium investors? Some people give such an answer – either join, or buy the fund. For retail investors, it’s either an institutional approach to stock trading — choose the right track, the right company, and buy at the right price. Or buy a public or private fund.
Similar to the views of the investment banking gurus, Zhang Ning of Minority Investment Group reported in his article “Magical January: Stock Market Crash Bull Market” that only 22 percent of stocks rose in January, hence the new term “Stock Market Crash Bull Market” on the Internet.
How do investors cope with this environment? Zhang Ning believes that such a situation may exist not only in the short term, but also in the long-term view of the structural bull market, which must be a small number of stocks to win the index. Through the ups and downs, although there are a lot of short-term emotional ups and downs and policy changes, but from a long-term perspective, excellent big blue chip companies will bring excess returns.
Hua securities research institute in research reported in the a-share market is entering split times, according to the structure change of the first year of 2017 began, “and” differentiation deepening, from the value of differentiation, 2016 years ago value factor almost once every two to three rings move, but the greater value factor since 2017 continued strong performance, the rising value of differentiation.
article links：The year 2021 begins this wave of exponential cattle
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