The impact of the outbreak on me is probably a trip or two less, that’s about it.I didn’t travel much before, and spent most of my time in my office and study, reading, thinking, and talking to people on the phone.
Q: After all, 2020 is so special and magical that many black swans have come out of nowhere.China is now in a “post-epidemic era,” while the United States and Europe are still dealing with the epidemic.All of your articles in this book were written before 2020. Has the year 2020 changed the issues you have been thinking about before?If the question hasn’t changed, has the answer changed?
A: Not this one.(Laughter) The problem I’m talking about in the book is that it’s in the tens of thousands of years. It’s about modernity.I’ve been thinking about these questions for 30 or 40 years, a long time span, so my question and my answer have not changed.Of course, many of today’s specific economic problems are related to the epidemic, but the issues I think about in my book are basically 10, 000 years old.
Q: Yes, your book gives a very optimistic and persuasive assessment of the future of human civilization, including China, on a very long historical scale.But this year, in addition to the epidemic, there is also the decoupling between China and the United States, China began to emphasize the “internal cycle” and the United States stock market several times circuit breaker, all kinds of unprecedented things have happened, including the dust just settled, Joe Biden will be the next president of the United States, what will be the follow-up development?
A: The changes in this area are relatively large.At the end of Trump’s presidency, the conflict has reached the frontier of a cold or even a hot war, and further development could indeed escalate the conflict further.My overall prediction for the Biden era is that the two sides will manage their differences within reasonable limits.Of course, the differences and contradictions between the two sides will always be more acute at this stage. The relationship between the two sides is indeed becoming more and more complex and dangerous. This situation will not change.
But the biggest difference between the “Biden era” and the “Trump era” is the likelihood of an extreme situation or a cold war, which I think will be much less in the Biden era.However, if Trump, due to his own reasons, does not manage it properly, the two sides may intensify the conflict if the communication and understanding are not sufficient.
History is sometimes caused by accidental factors, which lead to a series of chain reactions.This is often not determined by an individual or a party’s will.That’s what happened in World War I.