Recently, the 14th five-year Plan of development and the proposal for 2035, released by the CPC Central Committee, clearly put forward the implementation of the national strategy to actively respond to the aging population. The specific contents include:
“We will formulate a long-term population development strategy, optimize the family planning policy, make the family planning policy more inclusive, improve the level of services for prenatal and postnatal care, develop an inclusive family planning service system, reduce the cost of childbirth, upbringing and education, promote long-term balanced population development and improve the quality of the population.
“We will actively develop human resources for the elderly and develop the silver economy.Promote and retirement pension industry coordinated development, improve the basic old-age service system, developing endowment services and mutual endowment pratt &whitney type, take the family support function, foster new forms of provide for the aged, build a home in harmony, community institutions have kang a combination of old-age service system, a sound system of old-age service comprehensive regulation.”
The seventh national population census was launched this year, and relevant census data will be of important reference value for the country’s future population policy.
In recent years, global economic growth has been slowing down, especially in developed countries with a serious aging population. Social demand continues to decline, the pressure on welfare expenditure keeps increasing, and the return on capital investment continues to decline.International capital pays more attention to investment opportunities in regions with younger population structure and greater growth potential worldwide.
In fact, since the reform and opening up in the 1980s, the youth characteristics of China’s population structure has also been an important favorable factor for the sustained economic growth in recent decades.
However, after 40 years, the natural development trend of population age structure and the subsequent influence of domestic fertility policy, the aging trend of population is affecting the sustainable development potential of domestic economy. Therefore, it is urgent to improve the population structure and maintain the sustainable development level of economy by adjusting the fertility policy.
The economy is naturally slowing, keeping an eye out for an ageing population
The United Nations measurement on population aging is that a country or region is considered to be an aging society when the number of people aged 65 and over accounts for more than 7% of its total population, or the number of people aged 60 and over accounts for more than 10% of its total population.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2000, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in China exceeded 7%.In 2019, the figure was as high as 12.6 percent, with the proportion of people aged 60 and over rising to 18.1 percent.Obviously, the country has entered the aging society, and the aging trend has accelerated signs.
▲ Domestic aging trend data Source: Wind
Adjust birth policy, change birth idea
The ageing of the population has coincided with a decline in the number of births in The country, for several reasons.
First, the rising living costs of housing, medical care and education, especially the rapid rise in housing prices, have led to a sharp increase in pressure on young people to marry, and the marriage age continues to rise.The rising cost of education and health care also puts pressure on young people to start a family.In addition, because some families have no income, young couples still have the responsibility to support the elderly.
Second, China’s family planning policy still restricts couples from having more than one child.The number of new births in China has continued to decline since 2016, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.We believe that more needs to be done to increase the number of newly added people to ensure the sustainable development of the domestic economy in the future.
▲ Birth Population data Source: Wind
To promote sustainable economic development, we need to ensure sufficient population
Some argue that the current Chinese economy needs high-quality development, so it may be more important to improve the quality of the population.We believe that even if high-quality talents can be brought in, without a comparable population size, the endogenous development potential of the economy and society is still worrying.In addition, China is actively popularizing compulsory education, vocational education and higher education, and the scale of talent resources with considerable knowledge and skills is constantly expanding, which is expected to breed top high-end talents in various industries.
In addition, a larger population can not only undertake more social production tasks, but also an important source of social demand.At present, in the process of rapid industrialization in China, it is necessary to better develop the resources of social consumption demand to restore the economic growth potential, so as to achieve the positive circular development of social supply and demand.
Scientific and technological progress does not substitute for population growth
There are also opinions that with the continuous progress of social science and technology, especially the development of artificial intelligence, the ability of science and technology to replace human has been enhanced.We believe that the contemporary intelligent technology is still cannot replace most of the work people, intelligent technology to explore the development of the road is still long, however, the aging of the population problem has been approaching, social endowment increasingly apparent gap pressure, economic growth potential power is declining, therefore, need to boost the population scale and do more efforts to improve the population age structure.
In addition, the profit margins of the industries where science and technology replace human resources are often shrinking, while the new industries where human resources flow tend to have good investment returns. Therefore, the replacement of human resources by science and technology does not necessarily realize the recovery of the potential of social and economic enhancement.
We will develop the silver-haired economy and foster new growth points for social demand
The part mentioned in the 14th five-year Plan “actively developing human resources for the aged and developing the silver economy” is also the part lacking in our current economic development.
According to the white Paper on the Development of China’s Old-age Care Industry released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2016, the scale of China’s old-age care industry is expected to reach 13 trillion yuan by 2030, which will provide new business growth points for real estate, insurance, medicine, old-age care services and other fields and foster new social demand.