In this respect, I highly recommend my colleague Zhang Weiying’s online article, “The Three Industrial Revolutions I have experienced”.
Zhang Weiying was born in 1959 in northern Shaanxi, a rural child, until he went to university, no electricity;Clothes are mother, grandmother textile needle and thread;Never used the phone;The only piece of steel seen in the village was the blade of the sickle, and the iron products of the family were very few;There is no internal combustion engine, no other configuration of a modern economy.
There was no compulsory education in China at that time, and a large illiterate population-the basic conditions for modern technology to proliferate were not available.
Therefore, 1978 cannot be regarded as the completion of China’s “take-off”.
Will China’s “take-off” be realized in the next 30 years from 1978?
If we look at the problem in 2008, the differences will be small.As of 2008, China’s economy has been growing at a high rate of more than 10 per cent for decades – high growth of more than 10 per cent implies investment of about 30 per cent (assuming a capital output rate of about 3 per cent).
This rapid growth, strong sector driving, and, very importantly, the conditions for the diffusion of new technologies between urban and rural areas — culture, education, training, local competition — all play a role in this process.
So in 2008 Ronald Coase used his Nobel Prize money to invite about 50 Chinese entrepreneurs, local officials and economists to a meeting in Chicago to celebrate 30 years of reform and opening up. China was flying.The following year, China became the world’s second-largest economy.A year from now, China will be the biggest exporter.In another two years, China will become the largest importer and exporter of goods and the largest producer of industrial capacity.
The challenges after the economy takes off can be more complex than before
Now let’s turn to the weak point of Rostow’s theory — in my opinion, he did not study enough after takeoff.
Perhaps his attention is placed on how to realize the take-off, third world economy from the traditional to the modern economy the most critical, but to fly economy, after he borrow aircraft model, or is he behind several stages of generalization on economic growth, often appear be plain sailing, appear the fly will mature later, after the mature will toward high consumption, consumption, and then to the high quality growth.
China’s experience, especially since 2008, shows that the challenges after take-off can be even more serious and the problems before take-off even more complex.