China’s experience, especially since 2008, has shown that the challenges after take-off can be even more serious and the problems faced before take-off are even more complex.After 2008, we thought the economy would stabilize at a medium-high speed and enter a “new normal” — a very popular phrase at the time.It turned out not to be normal, but a time of dramatic change.There have been many incidents since then. From 2008 onwards, we can see that although China’s economy is very large and its total volume is very large, its distribution is extremely uneven.The question of sustainability hangs over our heads.
What is the difficulty?The difficulty is that the economy has already taken off, and high speed brings high expectations from all participants.At this time, if the speed changes or the economy changes, the impact on the psychology and behavior of the whole economic subject is not more serious than before flying.The “new normal” has not been maintained. I think the growth rate of 6% can be stabilized. Then comes the trade war between China and the United States, and then comes the unprecedented new crown.There are contingencies in all of these periods, but taken together they are intrinsically linked to an increasingly open and highly mobile economic infrastructure.So we should focus on, how can the economy be stable after take-off?
China’s economy is undoubtedly flying now, but the challenge is to fly later.There are three aspects to my view.
The first is the relationship between rich and poor countries in an open economy.It’s a question that David Hume began to work on in classical economics.Hume and Smith were both Scottish, Scotland was a backward part of the UK, England was a developed part of the UK, and there was tension after the merger, and then the UK was much less developed than Spain, and then less developed than the Netherlands, and then it was competing with France.So, the first generation of political economist, he is in the view of the economy, they are not only a narrow economic research Scotland how rich, but in the study of comparative and competitive economy, one of the problems is the original backward countries with advanced countries once brings big challenges, this is the very low labor costs, there is a higher labor income, once you get through trade, corresponding to a certain extent labor export, then the fundamental theorem of economics will happen: the high income levels drop down or low-income groups quickly rise up?This will lead to a very complex conflict, until the us-China trade conflict.Take away the chance factor, and the underlying economic problem is one between rich and poor countries.In fact, Hume had found that manufacturing industry would run around. He would move from places with high wages and high land prices to places with low wages and low land prices. What impact would this flow bring?The rate of capital flow is always higher than the rate of labor flow. After the flow occurs until it becomes more and more intense, what is the experience of the original place?What about jobs back home?If both the backward and advanced countries are in a dynamic state of technological progress, resulting in dynamic changes in comparative advantage, and if the rate of change of one party continues faster than that of the other, one party will permanently damage the other.So this logic does not lead to a very optimistic policy of free trade that can be kept open unconditionally.These problems will have a huge impact on China’s economy after it takes off. Although our economic aggregate is considerable, we are still decades behind the world’s advanced level in the most critical technologies and fields.If international economic relations between countries continue to be strained, and the availability of advanced technology and knowledge decreases, it will be difficult for the economy to continue to fly after takeoff, and there will be a lot of violent turbulence in the middle.
Second, unlike any growth takeoff that economists have ever studied, China’s “plane” is extremely large. It’s an extremely large plane.Not only very large, and the internal imbalances, different classes of income disparity, income difference between urban and rural areas, regions, the income difference between the problem has now been a lot of attention and there are a lot of research, but in my opinion, the income difference is a surface phenomenon, behind the income difference is the difference of technology, is the difference of industry, is the difference of concept, is the difference of scientific knowledge.This is a profound difference. In today’s China, although there are some differences of opinion within China, when we delve into certain areas, we find that the gap between the views of the Chinese people and the Chinese people is sometimes wider than the gap between the views of the Chinese people and those of foreigners.This challenge will also affect the tone in which the economies that have taken off are doing all the action in the air, because there is a lot of tension and a lot of pressure internally.China also has pilot areas, which were very developed in those days, but today we see them going down or stopping.How to deal with these problems?These problems are not handled well, and have achieved takeoff, that challenge is very, very big.
The third problem is to maintain balance and at the same time have a lot of motivation.Running economy, as long as the speed of slow, can be stable;After takeoff, the economy, to slow down the speed, there will be a great challenge, even the risk of falling.China’s economy needs sustained and strong momentum, otherwise the advanced parts that are still lagging behind will not have the strength and resources to continue to advance.At the same time, it is a difficult challenge to maintain the balance among aggregate supply, finance, industry and regions.These aspects, therefore, under the pressure and momentum, there is no guarantee that, like a theoretical description of the rostov finish after take-off will be mature, will be to high quality life, may also have twists and turns, so we should study these challenges, in the face of these challenges, and strive to make our results this giant plane to China, also include China after many third world countries fleet can smoothly take off, to make our contribution.