His strength was to see the process, not a uniform succession of changes, but some thrilling jumps and discontinuous changes in the middle.For example, from crawling to standing up, it is not continuous, he can not stand up slowly, he stands up all at once, can not stand down and then stand up.
In the lecture two years ago, Professor Hai Wen probably used Rostow’s framework to introduce the development and changes of China’s economy.He made the important conclusion that the Chinese plane was very large, so it would take a long time to take off.After takeoff, it takes longer to reach high maturity.
I would like to make some further discussion on the basis of Miss Hai Wen’s argument.For example, Rostow argues that China’s economic take-off began in 1952.The investment rate (including Soviet aid at the time) significantly exceeded 10% by completing the end of war, reunification and then industrialization in modern times, forming a powerful driving sector.At the same time, there was a very responsible administrative department engaged in planned economic activities to direct and deploy the economic growth of the whole country, so China began to take off in 1952.According to the 1952 takeoff, China’s takeoff should be completed in the late 1970s and early 1980s in a period of 20 to 30 years.But as anyone who has studied the Chinese economy knows, until the late 1970s and early 1980s, China could not be said to have taken off.Because even though the investment rate is above 5 to 10 percent, there is also a strong industrial-led sector.But the whole structure of China is characterized by a traditional economy, with 80 percent of the population in the countryside.The peasants are very poor, so they lack the purchasing power to digest industrial products. There is no very suitable domestic demand base for industrial growth, even if the basic conditions are not in place for it to take off.So in 1978 you could tell that China had not yet “taken off”.
So, 30 years from 1978 onwards, will China’s take-off be complete?
I think if we look at 2008, the differences will be very small.By 2008, China’s economy had been growing at a rapid rate of more than 10 percent for decades, implying investment of around 30 percent.Assuming that the capital output rate is only about 3%, such a high growth rate and strong driving force of the sector, it is also very important to have the conditions for the diffusion of new technologies between urban and rural areas.Culture, education, training and local competition all play a role in this process, so when Coase won the Nobel Prize in 2008 and invited about 50 Chinese entrepreneurs, local officials and economists to a meeting in Chicago to celebrate 30 years of China’s reform and opening up, China flew.The next year It will be the world’s second-largest economy, and the year after that it will be the biggest exporter.In another two years, China will become the largest country in terms of import, export and industrial production capacity.
It seems to me that one of the weaknesses of Rostow’s theory is that there is not enough research on post-liftoff, and perhaps his focus is on how to get the third World to take off, to make the crucial leap from the traditional to the modern economy.However, for the economy after flying, no matter the aircraft model of finance or the summary of the later stages of economic growth, it often seems to be plain sailing. It seems that as long as the economy flies, it will mature, and then mature towards high consumption, and then promote to high-quality growth.