A review of the storage market since 2020 shows that under the catalysis of coVID-19, the storage market has experienced a reversal process from inventory grabbing to inventory digestion.
In the first half of this year, the market as a whole was still oversupplied due to customers’ concerns that traffic would be blocked during the epidemic, which led to a rise in storage prices, said Guo Zuorong, vice general manager of Jibon Research, at the storage Summit in 2020.
For next year, memory output is expected to grow 17.6 percent from 14.3 percent this year.Because the investment of the original storage plant tends to be conservative under the epidemic, the production capacity and technology have not been expanded significantly, but the product memory specifications on the demand side are still growing, and there is a chance that the supply and demand will be balanced next year or even exceed the supply. The price will be flat and slightly increased in the second quarter, and will rise in the second half of next year.
In terms of market segments, server market growth is particularly outstanding this year.
Data shows that as services move to the cloud, the market share of the server part is gradually approaching that of mobile memory. It is estimated that the market share will reach 34% in 2020, increase by 20% to 30% annually in the future, and turn to be dominated by memory in the next 3 to 5 years.Guo expects that in the future the performance of laptops and smartphones may not be the most important, but only a display tool, with computing and analysis going to the cloud.
The post-epidemic era has also further boosted cloud business opportunities such as data center construction.
Liu Jiahao, senior analyst of Jibang Consulting, pointed out that after 5G business transformation, data centers will be given activation factors, driving the growth of micro data centers and edge computing, and becoming the main line of industrial development from 2021 to 2025.Application scenarios such as the Internet of Things and the Internet of cars also increase the demand for servers.Among them, the implementation of data centers has become the main driver of DRAM demand in recent years, accounting for more than 50% of DRAM consumption and more than 30% of DRAM shipments in the whole year.
For example, due to the impact of the epidemic, most enterprises have switched from purchasing servers to purchasing cloud servers.At the same time, cloud providers are offering more flexible services, including leasing, that pay by the volume or by the month, to meet the different needs of end customers.
In addition, affected by geopolitical uncertainty, countries are increasingly demanding control over the delivery of data.For example, Google has increased the construction of data centers in the asia-pacific region and the European Union in response to regulatory requirements this year, which is expected to lead to the construction of small and medium-sized data centers, a trend that will continue until 2025.
Smartphones push toward higher-order storage
In addition to servers, due to the impact of the epidemic, home office, online education, computer storage has rebounded strongly this year;Notebook output has grown at an annual rate of 55 percent, well above previous estimates.
This can be seen from lenovo group’s earnings report.Home office, study and entertainment requirements under the background of rising greatly, Q2 and medium-term fiscal 2021 revenue and profits have hit a record high, among them, the PC market, lenovo to the no.1 global market share of 23.6%, annual sales volume will be close to 300 million units, 2020 pre-tax profits more than $700 million, and this part of the strong demand is expected to last until next year.
In contrast, the mobile phone plate affected by the epidemic fell.Jibang data forecasts an 11% decline in the smartphone market this year.
Wang Shuchong, head of ARM’s China Mobile, also expects the handset market to fall by 12% this year because of the outbreak.However, with the further popularization of 5G, the smartphone market is expected to see a strong rebound next year;The accelerated penetration of 5G phones into 1000-yuan models also presents opportunities for computing and storage operators.
ARM is pushing the storage industry toward pure 64-bit computing, and starting in 2022, mobile intelligent terminals will no longer support 32-bit high-performance processors, it said.
Qualcomm predicts that the number of smartphones and related smart terminal connections will reach 1 billion by 2023, a full two years earlier than the total number of 4G connections.Currently, most flagship smartphones using Snapdragon 8 5G mobile platform adopt the configuration of LPDDR5+UFS3.1.Commercial terminals with Qualcomm snapdragon 4 series 5G mobile platform are expected to be launched in the first quarter of next year.
In addition to higher-order storage, medium and low-order storage will also benefit from the increased pull of the phone’s camera.Shuang Yu xuan, an analyst at Jibon, expects multiple flights, improved pixels on mobile phones, and the use of ToF functions will be further evolution of the camera.
Reprint indicated source：Shine Trader Limited Live information