“Although the national real estate policy began to tighten in September, the performance of the real estate market in October 2020 just released by the National Bureau of Statistics exceeded market expectations.In October, domestic real estate sales area, investment and new construction area all increased significantly compared with the same month last year. The growth rate of sales area in a single month was the highest since July 2017, and the growth rate of investment in a single month also hit the highest since July 2018.”Cheng Xiaoyong on the analysis of the current aluminum prices than expected upward factor, high prices, a few rounds before are including the spontaneity of industry production, and the supply side of the government-led reform problems in the supply end, but this year, real estate and part of the infrastructure project boost demand for aluminum, the demand is much better than last year.
In the near future, the demand for new energy vehicles, which has driven up the price of a variety of chemical commodities, has also become a new force in the increase of demand for aluminum products.
“Recently, new energy vehicles have come out with a series of supporting policies, which have formed a driving force for automobile consumption.Although the proportion of new-energy vehicles in the overall aluminum demand is not large, the year-on-year growth rate will be relatively high due to the low base.”Cheng xiaoyong said.
In 2020, the epidemic forced the new energy stimulus policy. In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 136,000 and 138,000 respectively, up 48% and 67.7% year-on-year respectively, marking three consecutive months of growth.Among them, 107,000 and 112,000 pure electric vehicles were produced and sold, up 40% and 71.5% year-on-year respectively.In 2018, the total demand of electric vehicle manufacturers for aluminum reached 250,000 tons. In the medium and long term, under the background of global policy incentives, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to keep increasing, which is expected to continuously drive the growth of aluminum demand.
Days the wind securities research report shows, along with the ascension of traditional automobile spark global limited energy consumption standard and the requirement of new energy car range, automotive lightweighting has become the development trend of new energy vehicles, market vigorously promote high strength steel, aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy, engineering plastics, composite materials, such as applications in the car, including the lightweight, car power system lightweight car body, chassis lightweight technology standardization systematic, lightweight materials, typical components, composite technology and efficient preparation of the design of lightweight material components and process simulation technology, etc.According to the domestic goal of vehicle lightweight, the amount of aluminum used for each vehicle is expected to increase by 150kg by 2030, and the demand for aluminum is expected to increase by more than 6 million tons by 2030.
“In addition to the demand for real estate, infrastructure and automobiles, the new infrastructure development plan proposed by the state this year has also led to a significant increase in the amount of aluminum used in the carriages, including ultra-high voltage cables, high-speed railways and subways,” he said.In an interview, Wang xin also said that although the recent increase in international aluminum prices, but far less than strong domestic demand.According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on Aug. 23, China’s imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in July were 391,300 tons, up 570 percent from a year earlier and the largest monthly volume since April 2009.Meanwhile, China’s primary aluminum production rose to a record high of 3.1 million tons in July, up 3.1 percent from a year earlier.In the first seven months of this year, China’s primary aluminum output was 21.13 million tons, up 2.5% year on year.At present, foreign countries are still affected by the epidemic. The demand for aluminum is decreasing, and there is an annual production reduction of 200,000-300,000 tons overseas.If foreign demand recovers, overall demand for aluminium will be better than it is now.
Zhuochuang analyst Zheng Chunlei believes that spot aluminum prices can continue to rise the main driving force for the market demand support superposition macro guidance to good.In the aftermarket, the destocking of spot inventory on the demand side will continue. Driven by the continuous good trend of the domestic market, the trend of continued strong market demand will not change, and the support of the demand side for aluminum price is still strong.
Supply release is not as good as expected social inventory decline
Many years ago, the high inventory of aluminum industry has been the target of market attention and criticism, and in the interview, the interviewees unanimously said that the current domestic electrolytic aluminum supply end is indeed tight problem.
“This year is the first time China has imported aluminum ingots from abroad since 2009.Unlike the abnormal market in 2017, when aluminum prices were high and domestic inventories were also very high, the current domestic aluminum inventory is only over 600,000 tons, which is at a low level.”In Wang Xin’s view, the recent strong trend of aluminum supply end capacity release less than expected factors inseparable.He said that in recent years, leading aluminum companies have concentrated their production capacity to Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia, where production is relatively advantageous, but after the transfer, many companies have not released capacity as expected.
“Production, which people had expected to increase more quickly, has not been released.This side has been moved, but the construction progress there is relatively slow.On the one hand, investors are short of funds; on the other hand, they have a certain relationship with the government.”Wang xin said that the market currently known effective capacity of 41 million to 42 million tons, the actual operation has been opened to 39 million tons, the future release space is limited.The possibility of new production capacity in the market is also relatively small, the advantageous regional indicators have been full, even if there are indicators of the enterprise, there is no place to land.
Reprint indicated source：Shine Trader Limited Live information