The reporter of Securities Times Company recently learned through interviews with various parties in the upstream and downstream of the aluminum industry that, different from the deformed market of “high aluminum price and high aluminum inventory” in 2017, the stock of aluminum is at a relatively low level and the high level is supported by the fundamentals due to the slow release of supply and strong domestic demand.However, in the current upstream and downstream profit situation is not good under the background, electrolytic aluminum ultra-high profitability level of sustainability, or will also face challenges.
In recent years, henan province, once a strong aluminum province, has shifted its production capacity to other provinces due to the high cost of local electricity price and the decline of bauxite grade.However, even if the living environment is not good, local electrolytic aluminum enterprises have recently also led a rare good life.
“Compared with Xinjiang, Yunnan and other regions, henan’s production cost is obviously higher, but this period of time the cost of alumina is lower, a bit bigger electrolytic aluminum enterprises can achieve a ton of cost of 13,000 yuan, a single ton of profit can be more than 2,000 yuan.”The person in charge of an electrolytic aluminum production plant in Gongyi, Henan province, chatted with the reporter of Securities Times · E Company about the aluminum market this year, telling the truth that he felt like riding a roller coaster.
Future aluminum prices up with spot aluminum prices with frequency.As of Nov. 12, domestic spot aluminum prices were 15,490 yuan/ton, up 1,580 yuan/ton from the same period last year, or 11.36 percent, zhuochuang data showed.Last week, the domestic spot aluminum price has broken through 15500 yuan/ton line, the overall price has reached a new level, mainly operating between 15060-15510 yuan/ton.
“The spot price of aluminum to the futures price of one hundred or two hundred yuan per ton of water, spot electrolytic aluminum price has basically reached nearly 16,000 yuan/ton.”In the interview, A share of an aluminum listed company wang Xin (alias) expressed the good expectations of the electrolytic aluminum market.He said that although the domestic aluminum price reached a historical high of 17,000 yuan/ton in 2017, the profit of electrolytic aluminum production was not significant at that time due to the extremely high cost of production such as alumina.Although the current aluminum price has not reached the high point in 2017, but the cost of alumina has dropped significantly compared with then, the current profit situation of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has reached the best level in history, low-cost enterprises can achieve a ton of profit of 4000 yuan, and the market expects the next two to three years this level of profit will be normalized.
For electrolytic aluminum enterprises at the current profit level of the extremely excellent performance, Baocheng Futures Financial Research institute director Cheng Xiaoyong also affirmed.He also mentioned in the exchange with the reporter of Securities Times · E company that although the current price of domestic electrolytic aluminum has not reached the historical extreme value, it has been at a high level.Under the background that the current cost price of alumina and bauxite is running at a low level, the profit level of electrolytic aluminum production enterprises has reached the best level in history.
The high profit of electrolytic aluminum spark global limited production can also be seen from the financial statements of related listed companies.
In the third quarter of 2020, Cloud Aluminum Co., LTD. (000807) realized an operating income of 7.825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3%;Net profit was 327 million yuan, up 148.76% year-on-year.In the third quarter of 2020, non-net profit deducted by Shenhuo (000933) was 157 million yuan, an increase of 410.48% over the same period of last year.
Shenhuo said its Xinjiang Shenhuo Coal power Co., Ltd. made a total profit of 775 million yuan in the first three quarters, up 395 million yuan year-on-year, and 384 million yuan in the third quarter, up 188 million yuan month-on-month.Affected by the sharp year-on-year decline in the price of bulk raw materials such as alumina and anode carbon blocks, the total cost of electrolytic aluminum products decreased by 759.71 yuan/ton, and the total profit increased by 429 million yuan.The selling price of electrolytic aluminum products excluding tax decreased by 59.72 yuan/ton year-on-year, and the total profit decreased by 36.716 million yuan year-on-year.Affected by the above factors, the net profit spark global limited attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased by 300 million yuan year-on-year.
Strong domestic demand offset weak overseas markets
The relationship between supply and demand in the market is an important factor in determining the trend of commodity prices.Although overseas demand is weak due to the impact of the epidemic this year, since the second half of the year, the domestic industry including real estate, infrastructure, new energy vehicles and other positive data, the upstream demand for aluminum products has formed a significant pull.
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