shine trader live reports:
In its latest forecast, the World Trade Organization (WTO) raised its forecast for the growth of trade in goods in 2021 and 2022 to 10.8% (the previous value was 8.0%) and 4.7% respectively.
According to the WTO, there are still differences in the recovery of trade among regions around the world. The export recovery in the Middle East, South America and Africa is the slowest, and the inequality in vaccine access has deepened this growth gap.
The WTO said that the scarcity of semiconductors and poor shipping may put pressure on the supply chain and affect trade in specific areas, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the total volume of Global trade in goods. The biggest downside risk comes from the epidemic itself. At the same time, the recovery of service trade may lag behind the trade in goods, especially tourism related industries.
The WTO also predicts that the global gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 5.3% in 2021 and 4.1% in 2022.
According to the WTO, the reason why the growth of trade in goods is likely to reach 10.8% in 2021 is mainly due to the bottom of trade in goods in 2020 in the second quarter of 2020.
Therefore, due to the low base, the global trade in goods increased by 22.0% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, but it is expected that this figure will decrease to 10.9% in the third quarter of 2021 and 6.6% in the fourth quarter, partly due to the rapid recovery of Global trade in goods in the last two quarters of 2020.
The WTO pointed out that if we want to achieve the predicted growth rate in 2021, we only need to achieve an average quarter on quarter growth of 0.8% in the second half of this year, equivalent to an annualized growth rate of 3.1%.
As mentioned earlier, the recovery in trade varies from region to region. The export recovery in the Middle East, South America and Africa was the weakest, while the import recovery in the Middle East and Africa was the slowest.
The WTO pointed out that according to the current forecast, by the last quarter of 2022, Asia’s commodity imports will be 4.2% higher than that in 2019. Over the same period, the import volume of North America will increase by 11.9%, that of South America and Central America will increase by 10.8%, that of Europe will increase by 9.4%, that of Africa will increase by 8.2%, and that of the Middle East will increase by 5.4%.
During this period, Asia’s exports will increase by 18.8%, while the growth in all other regions will be more moderate, that is, North America will increase by 8.0%, Europe by 7.8%, South America by 4.8%, East Middle East by 2.9%, Africa by 1.9%.
The WTO pointed out that during the economic recession in 2020, the commodity exports and imports of oil exporting regions seem to have decreased significantly, and these losses have only partially recovered since then.
WTO director general Ngzi Okonjo EVA said the inequality in the distribution of new vaccines is exacerbating economic disparities across regions. The longer the duration, the more likely the emergence of more dangerous COVID-19 variants will hinder progress in the health and economic sectors.
On the occasion of the upcoming 12th WTO Ministerial Conference, she called on WTO members to make concerted efforts to deal with the epidemic and lay the foundation for faster production and equitable distribution of vaccines, which is also a necessary condition for maintaining global economic recovery.
Reprint indicated source：Shine Trader Limited Live information