shine trader limited reports:
“This is the first time in 16 years! Merkel cannot determine who her successor is before 18:00 on the election day.” German media wrote on the 26th, but even after 18:00 on the 26th, Merkel still cannot determine who her successor is.
As of the press time of the first financial reporter, a survey by the German polling agency infratest dimap / ard showed that the voting rate of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) was 25.8%, that of the Alliance Party composed of the CDU / CSU was 24.1%, and that of the green party was 14.6%.
The official election results will be released later by the German federal election agency.
Gu Xuewu, a professor of political science at the University of Bonn, Germany, told the first financial reporter that the fragmentation trend of German Party ecology has become more and more intense. In previous general elections, the coalition party often led the Social Democratic Party by a significant advantage, but this year, the gathering of the two has become increasingly narrow. In the early polls, the coalition party was even overtaken by the Social Democratic Party.
“The increase in the number of (political) parties in parliament has not only caused the intensity of the election, but also caused the uncertainty of forming a cabinet in the future,” Gu Xuewu said.
The three candidates for the German federal parliament election are Raschet of the coalition party. He is considered to be a balanced politician, and his political line is more consistent with that of German Chancellor Angela Merkel; Followed by Scholtz of the Social Democratic Party, who served as mayor of Hamburg and balbock, a more radical Green Party candidate.
In addition, Gu Xuewu believes that none of the three candidates for prime minister in this election has a “halo of serving Prime Minister”. Unlike Merkel, the three candidates have never served as prime minister and they do not have much political capital in their hands.
German voters lined up at the gate of a polling station. Chen Xiyu / photo
The better the weather, the lower the turnout?
On the day of voting on the 26th, the weather in Berlin was fine. Many German people went out of their homes early in the morning and came to the polling station to cast their votes for the candidate for prime minister and the ruling party.
A German federal government staff member told first finance that the government’s historical statistics show that generally speaking, the better the weather, the lower the voting rate, because some people will be greedy for sunlight, go out for activities, forget to vote or give up voting.
However, as many polls before the election showed that the support rate gap between the top ranked parties was not as significant as in previous years, which also led many people to pay special attention to voting opportunities and believe that their votes can play a role.
Outside several polling stations visited by the first financial reporter, we can see that long queues have been lined up outside the polling stations since 10 a.m.
Statistics also confirm this observation. The participation rate in this general election is about 78%, higher than 76.2% in 2017.
Perhaps it is also because the people’s enthusiasm for voting exceeded expectations, leading to the Oolong event in the day. A German government insider told the first financial reporter that some polling stations in Berlin were unable to vote because of insufficient votes.
“It’s terrible and they have to go home,” said the above person. It is unclear whether the relevant polling stations or the election commission have taken remedial measures.
Earlier export polls once showed that the coalition party and the social democratic party were tied, with 25% of the votes.
Although the counting of votes continues, according to the experience of German Federal Parliament elections in previous years, the export polls are highly referential. Therefore, such a dramatic export poll results are surprising, and the glued election is also in line with the previous prediction of the academic community.
According to the current rules, the current Chancellor Angela Merkel will continue to serve until the Federal Parliament elects a new Chancellor. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the German Federal Election Commission preliminarily estimated that at least 40% of voters chose to mail their votes in advance this year, much higher than the level of less than 30% in the last general election in 2017. This also means that the workload and duration of counting votes will increase significantly.
What do voters care about most?
In an interview with China business, utmer, a senior economist of Allianz Group in Germany, said that in terms of economy and trade, this election is also of far-reaching significance.
“According to the economic plans put forward by different political parties, it can be seen that each party has different ideas on how to reform the German economy, such as how to deal with climate change and how to find Germany’s position in Global trade. Therefore, in terms of these economic plans, the election is very important, because Germany may step into different economic tracks.” utmer said.
There is no doubt that climate change is the most popular issue among voters. Among the many people randomly interviewed by the first financial reporter, all said that how to deal with climate change was a priority when voting.
Kirian, who lives in Berlin’s mitt District, told the first financial reporter that for him, the first important thing is to choose a political party that actively responds to climate change to protect the earth; The second is to choose the candidates who will take action, do what they say and fulfill their commitments to voters.
ADA, a college student studying in Berlin, holds a similar view. He also believes that the most important issue is climate change. “Personally, when I make a voting decision, I mainly consider this,” he said.
Suzanne, who is already a mother of two, is more direct: “change must be made because there is no time.”
In addition to climate change, some people expressed dissatisfaction with the current digital situation in Germany.