All day long, the volume of the two cities rose sharply, the turnover volume exceeded 1 trillion and 500 billion yuan, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 2.55%, Shanghai Stock Index 50 increased 2.5%, Shanghai index rose 1.97%, Shenzhen index increased 2.25%, gem index increased 1.55%, two cities were on the whole day, and nearly Baijiu stocks fell red. Lithium stocks showed significant differentiation. Affected by the decline in commodities, steel and coal opened lower, Saline Lake lithium and energy storage continued to rise, the recent adjustment of Baijiu, food and beverage plate rebounded sharply, Guizhou Moutai bottom rose more than 4%, Huangtai liquor, alcoholic liquor trading. Military industry, industrial Internet, securities and automobile vehicles were active all day. BYD closed the board in the afternoon, with a turnover of more than 17 billion. On the disk, Saline Lake’s lithium extraction, Baijiu concept, aero engine and other gainers, steel, MCU chips, coal concept and other leading edge.
As of the closing, northbound funds had bought a net 5.184 billion yuan for the whole day, which was a net purchase for four consecutive days; Among them, the net purchase of Shanghai Stock connect was 3.093 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 2.091 billion yuan.
Pacific Securities pointed out that the recent explosion of large-scale excavation demand is mainly due to the sharp increase in coal demand and tight coal supply. In view of this situation, various departments require to ensure the supply of coal and ensure the demand for coal. About 50% of large-scale excavation is used for coal mining, and various restrictions have been eliminated. Since this year, the issuance of special bonds in many places has been accelerated to promote the construction of various projects, make up for shortcomings, benefit people’s livelihood, stabilize investment and promote development. In addition, the steel price continued to rise in the first half of this year and reached a record high in mid May. However, with the proposal of the policy of “ensuring supply and stabilizing price”, the steel price gradually decreased and returned to a reasonable range. The decline of raw material prices reduced the construction cost of various projects, improved the construction enthusiasm of the construction party, accelerated the construction speed and improved the construction demand. At present, the overall sales volume of excavators in July will continue to improve year-on-year. With the implementation of infrastructure, real estate and other projects, the demand for excavators in the peak season from September to October may exceed expectations. We are optimistic about the leading companies in the construction machinery industry, and focus on Sany Heavy Industry, which has a high market share, as well as Hengli hydraulic, Zoomlion, XCMG machinery, etc.
Guotai Baijiu Baiyin said that the recent policy on education, Internet and other industries triggered the market’s concern about Baijiu policy. The related policy impact of the second plate Baijiu mainly involves two categories, consumption and taxation. The consumption structure of liquor consumption has changed greatly at present, and business and household consumption have replaced government spending as the main purchasing power, while consumption attributes continue to rise. The liquor industry cycle is roughly ironed, and on the other hand, Baijiu Baijiu has a long cycle of product upgrading in the wave of consumer upgrading. Baijiu tax reform focuses on the consumption tax reform. First of all, there is little probability of negative policies in the environment of domestic demand. Besides, the operation of liquor consumption tax is difficult. We believe that the probability of implementation is very small and negative expectations should not be too heavy. At present, the overall high-end demand is strong, the control ability of volume and price in the off-season continues to improve, the operation remains stable and has a long-term perspective. Under the current stock price, the valuation of big wine has obvious advantages (maowu Luzhou corresponds to 34x, 29x and 27x respectively in 22 years). The secondary high-end still maintains high elasticity year-on-year, and the performance of core large items is outstanding, which is expected to drive the structural upgrading.
CSC Securities believes that the market of securities companies is waiting to be seen（ 1) At present, the price to book ratio (1.50 times) of the securities sector is only 17% since 2016, lower than the valuation center in 2020 (1.82 times); However, in the first half of the year, the net profit of the securities industry was + 8.58% year-on-year, and the roe was basically flat year-on-year; Therefore, there is a mismatch between the valuation of securities companies and their performance, which has the potential of upward repair（ 2) In terms of liquidity, the central bank lowered the reserve requirement to improve trading sentiment, and there is a possibility of downward market interest rate, which is conducive to the improvement of valuation of securities companies（ 3) In terms of regulatory policies, institutional arrangements such as single T + 0 transaction, listing of asset management companies and Shenzhen stock index futures during the year can be expected. Measures such as further opening to the outside world and guiding medium and long-term funds into the market are expected to be launched to provide a source of incremental performance for the securities sector.
CITIC Securities said that the military industry is one of the industrial directions with relatively certain development prospects in the future and is expected to be recognized by the market under the continuous realization of performance. The industry has fundamental support. At the same time, the inflection point will be upward from the third quarter. It is recommended to carry out long-term allocation of core stocks. On the contrary, short-term game will increase transaction costs.
Reprint indicated source：Shine Trader Limited Live information