The two quarter report of the public fund has been disclosed. The overall position of the liquor sector has dropped, and the Baijiu Baijiu and the second high-end brands have been out of the line. In July 26th, Su Cheng, principal analyst of food and beverage at Anxin securities, visited the securities times e micro interview to help investors clarify the logic behind the changes in the fund’s holdings and explore opportunities in the second half of the Baijiu market.
Su Cheng believes that the high-end Baijiu is favored by this year, which reflects the growth of market style. In the long run, enterprises with quality identity, brand accumulation, clear strategy and excellent team will take the advantage. The growth rate of secondary high-end brands may slow down in the second half of the year, but the boom will continue until next year. In addition, the old wine market is becoming more and more popular, and enterprises with brand, energy storage and capacity advantages deserve attention.
Baijiu liquor holdings lower valuation down to increase cost performance
Combing the two quarter cemetery fund holdings changes, Baijiu plate overall decline in positions. Data show that the second quarter of this year, the fund Baijiu 7.84%, a decrease of 0.45pct. In the past, the 2020Q2-2021Q2 fund’s Baijiu holdings were 5.54%, 6.75%, 8.48%, 8.29% and 7.84% respectively, that is, after the fourth quarter of last year, the fund has been reduced Baijiu for two consecutive quarters.
Specifically, the proportion of Baijiu liquor brands and the stock positions of liquor brands represented by “five Lushi” were all down. Guizhou Maotai still ranked first in the whole market, but the proportion of heavy positions of funds decreased by 0.48pct to 2.88% month on month; Wuliangye’s position in the whole market decreased by 1 to the third, and the position proportion decreased by 0.12pct month on month; Luzhou Laojiao’s position ranking decreased by 2 to No. 10, and its position proportion decreased by 0.19pct month on month.
Data source: wind, fund semi annual report, Anxin Securities Research Center
For the reduction of Baijiu Baijiu liquor, Su Cheng analysis said that the main reason is that this year’s market style tends to grow more, while the growth of first-line liquor performance is relatively stable, and has no advantage in such topics as “super expectations” and “high growth”. In addition, after two consecutive years of core assets Daniel, the first-line liquor has been relatively high valuation, coupled with the large number of Baijiu Baijiu liquor market held in the past few years, so it is easier to reduce the margin.
Capital outflow is also reflected in stock prices. Since the beginning of this year, the first-line liquor stocks have generally entered the adjustment state. Taking Guizhou Maotai as an example, after hitting a record high price of 2608.39 yuan in mid February, Guizhou Maotai’s share price has been fluctuating up and down. After a continuous sharp decline in recent days, the latest closing price is 1712.89 yuan per share.
From the valuation level, “Mau five Lu” three Baijiu enterprises this year, the valuation of 40-45 times, corresponding to next year’s valuation of about 34-35 times, compared with 24-30 times the historical average is still a lot higher. Su Cheng reminded that although the valuation is still relatively high, we need to see the changes in the background behind the valuation. One is that the proportion of institutional investors in domestic capital market has improved significantly in the recent years. This trend will not change in the long run. This means that the Baijiu plate, which benefits from consumption upgrading and growth prospects, will be favored by investors in the medium and long term, especially among those already in the dominant competitive position.
Second, the market has greatly enhanced the cognition of the head Baijiu moat. More and more investors are downplaying the concern of Baijiu’s cycle, and more on the scarcity of brands, the competition moat and business models. Third, the domestic interest rate is still high in the world, and the long-term downward trend of interest rate is conducive to the improvement of valuation; Finally, investors now have an international perspective. The reference of international Baijiu brands to domestic first-line liquor will find that their level is still reasonable.
“Although the price of Baijiu liquor is generally high this year, its valuation is still more than 40 times long, and it is also an important contribution, that is, to guide investors to think about whether this is the main valuation center of Baijiu liquor in the future.” Su Cheng said that the current stock price adjustment brought short-term valuation, which actually increased the cost performance. Especially after the fourth quarter, from the perspective of cross year layout and valuation switching, high-end Baijiu is still a very beneficial sector.
Three cycle resonance helps sub high-end brands usher in the new year
It is noteworthy that the second high-end Baijiu brand has made a brilliant performance in the two quarter. Among the top 20 stocks held by the fund, Shanxi Fenjiu rose four places to 12th, and its position ratio rose 0.13pct to 0.81% month on month; Yanghe shares ranked among the top 20 and ranked 17th, and its position rose 0.19pct to 0.56% month on month. Some Baijiu enterprises have strong share prices, for example, the share price of the liquor industry has increased by over 155% in the two quarter.
“The root of the market’s generous valuation lies in the performance. If the performance does not grow rapidly and obviously exceed expectations, it is difficult to obtain the valuation premium.” Su Cheng said that whether it is due to the deterministic recovery this year after the economic damage caused by the epidemic last year, or the rise of industries such as new energy under the encouragement of policies, the market has formed this year’s growth style in the high growth of performance in many industries.
Su Cheng judged that this year would be a big year for secondary high-end brands because of the “three cycle resonance”. The first is the economic cycle. After the impact of the epidemic subsided last year, the economic recovery brought high-speed growth; Second, the inventory cycle, the first half of last year, sales were blocked, Baijiu enterprises are mostly going to stock, so this year started inventory is low. Finally, the product price cycle of enterprises, and further optimization of the product structure of Baijiu enterprises. The key measures to popularize high-end products or raise prices directly are the measures commonly adopted by liquor companies in the past six months.
Reprint indicated source：Shine Trader Limited Live information