As for the recent market trend, Guosheng Securities pointed out that the daily K-line of Shanghai stock index is the small Yin line of the upper and lower shadow lines, which has been horizontally consolidated for four consecutive trading days. The 10th and 20th moving average has technical support, and the market lacks obvious incremental funds. The contribution of short-term large cap heavyweight stocks to the market may not last. It is expected that the market will still have downward demand in the short term, and the overall upward trend will not change, However, the internal operation rhythm of the market has changed, and the science and technology growth industry is still the core investment theme in the second quarter. We should pay attention to the high point switching of individual stocks in the sector, and strategically grasp the investment opportunities of low value stocks such as semiconductor, photovoltaic, new energy and other industries with high growth in the semi annual report.
Guosen Securities pointed out that after entering July, listed companies will successively disclose information related to medium-term performance, and the impact of fundamental factors will undoubtedly become the focus of market attention. According to the published macro fundamental data, the high-frequency profit tracking model built by Guoxin strategy team shows that the overall profit growth rate of A-share listed companies in the second quarter is expected to fall slightly, and the overall growth rate will still maintain a rapid growth rate of about 50%. Structurally, the profit growth of non-financial enterprises peaked in the first quarter, and it will significantly decline to 105% in the second quarter. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprises is expected to be 131%, which remains at a high level but is significantly lower than that in the first quarter. This is mainly because the profit growth of some middle and downstream manufacturing enterprises began to return to the normal level when the low base effect weakened, The profits of some upstream resource products such as coal, non-ferrous metals and other industries are expected to accelerate under the background of rising commodity prices.
Today’s strategic research view of Huaxin Securities believes that under the strong US dollar cycle, the inflow of foreign capital will be restrained, at the same time, the decline of profit-making effect and the decline of risk preference in the market will result in the loose situation or marginal tightening of micro liquidity in the market. From the perspective of market, there was a large volume long negative in the CSI 500 index on Thursday, and the growth enterprise market also received a large volume negative line at a high level. These are all signals that the market is gradually weakening. For investors, short-term A shares may still have the possibility of repetition, but for investors, it is mainly to continue to control positions when the market is high.
Dongguan Securities believes that there are still opportunities for the market to rise in July. Dongguan Securities believes that from the market environment in July 2021, COVID-19 Delta strain caused partial disturbance to the global economic resonance recovery, but it did not change the keynote of global economic recovery, and the global economy still maintained a relatively strong momentum of recovery. The domestic economy has been running steadily, and the monetary policy continues to take the lead. With the warmer issuance of funds and the continuous inflow of northward funds, and the stable cross quarter market, the pressure on funds will be eased. On the whole, the market shows a fluctuating upward trend, the technical side gradually stabilizes, and the market volume can be released and expanded. With the easing of short-term inflation pressure, the continuous implementation of policies and the gradual admission of new funds, it is expected to boost market confidence.