Netease Finance, June 21st, the three major A-share stock indexes opened lower today. After the opening, they turned to red after the opening, driven by military industry, steel, and semiconductors. The ChiNext stock index rose 1.5% at one time, and then fell back. Heavyweight stocks such as liquor and coal performed sluggishly. On the disk, Hongmeng, Medicine, and Medical Beauty ranked among the top gainers, and the coal, liquor, and cement sectors were among the top losers. In the afternoon, the third-generation semiconductor and national defense and military industries continued to rise. The digital currency sector rose in the short-term, and Kelan Software rose more than 19%. The main contract of live hog futures hit a record low again, and pork stocks plunged collectively. The Kechuang 50 Index rose by more than 2% in the afternoon, and the first batch of 9 Shuangchuang 50 ETFs was officially put on sale today. On the whole, there are more ups and less downs, and the market has a good effect on making money. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded the trillion mark for two consecutive trading days. Northbound funds sold a net 2.010 billion yuan throughout the day, which was a net sale for two consecutive trading days.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.40%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.97%.
In terms of sectors, Hongmeng, National Defense and Military Industry, Medical Equipment, and Steel led the gains, while coal, pork, and cement led the decline. In terms of individual stocks, Zhongxing Bacteria intends to acquire 100% equity of Shengjiao Winery, with a daily limit at the opening. On the evening of June 20, Gree Electric released the first phase of the employee stock ownership plan (draft). Employees can buy stocks at a discount of about 50%. If the chairman and president Dong Mingzhu subscribes, it will directly make a profit of 800 million yuan. The market questioned whether there is any Suspected of benefit transfer. On June 21, Gree Electric opened low and went low, and fell 4.79% as of the close
1. The Animal Husbandry Association proposes: Don’t panic when prices are falling, and don’t arrange production with a gambling mentality.
Recently, the China Animal Husbandry Association issued a proposal saying that it hopes that everyone will pay more attention to the live pig production and market data released by the official website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and follow the normal production plan in an orderly manner. Don’t panic during the price decline stage, let alone listen to rumors, and use a gambling mentality. Arrange production. The loss of pig farming in May was 9.7%. Some excellent farms can control the cost within 6 yuan per catty. This shows that the market is not good and there will be money when it comes to time. It is recommended to speed up the elimination of low-yielding sows, especially the ternary fat pigs reserved for breeding, so as to improve the reproductive efficiency of sows, increase the feed conversion rate, and enhance competitiveness.
2. The fundraising scale of the 50 ETF for Double Innovation and Innovation of China and South China exceeds 2 billion yuan
Nine double-entrepreneur 50 ETFs with one-click layout on the ChiNext and Science and Technology Innovation Board officially went on sale today. It has been learned from multiple sources that as of 12:00 noon, the scale of the 50 ETFs raised by China and Southern has exceeded 2 billion yuan, and there is a high probability that the 50 ETFs raised by E Fund and Harvest will raise about 1 billion yuan; the rich country The fundraising scale of the 50 ETF for entrepreneurship and innovation of China is about 600 million yuan, and that of Cathay Pacific and Huabao is about 300 million to 400 million yuan.
3. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of Market Supervision jointly investigate the iron ore spot market: promptly investigate abnormal transactions and malicious speculation
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, on June 21, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Price Supervision and Competition Bureau of the State Administration of Market Supervision went to Beijing Iron Ore Trading Center to conduct research and held a special symposium to study the work of ensuring the supply and stabilization of iron ore and other bulk commodities. . The meeting pointed out that the state supports the healthy development of iron ore spot trading platforms and encourages relevant market entities to trade in compliance with laws and regulations. At the same time, they will pay close attention to changes in spot trading prices, promptly investigate abnormal transactions and malicious speculation, and implement monopoly agreements and spread price increases. Information, price hikes, hoarding and other behaviors will be severely punished in accordance with the law and publicly exposed to maintain a good market order.
4. The central bank: optimize self-discipline of deposit interest rates and promote orderly competition in the market
On June 21, the market interest rate pricing self-regulatory mechanism optimized the method for determining the self-regulatory upper limit of deposit interest rates. The self-regulatory upper limit of deposit interest rates, which was originally formed by a certain multiple of the deposit benchmark interest rate, was changed to be determined by adding a certain basis point to the deposit benchmark interest rate. After the implementation of the new plan, financial institutions do not need to substantially adjust deposit interest rates for all maturities, and the proportion of deposits over one year is also small. Generally speaking, the impact on financial institutions and depositors is not large. At the same time, the new plan eliminates the leverage effect, and the spread between long-term and short-term deposit rates will be narrowed, which will help guide bank deposits to return to a reasonable term structure.
5. Agricultural Bank of China: prohibits the access of customers involving virtual currency transactions, and will increase investigation and monitoring of customers and capital transactions
The Agricultural Bank of China issued a statement prohibiting the use of our services for Bitcoin and other virtual currency transactions. Our bank is determined not to carry out or participate in any virtual currency-related business activities. It prohibits the access of customers involving virtual currency transactions, and will give customers and Intensified investigation and monitoring of capital transactions. Once relevant behaviors are discovered, measures such as suspension of account transactions and termination of customer relationships will be taken immediately, and relevant authorities will be reported in a timely manner. Customers should be highly alert to the risks of virtual currency-related business activities, improve risk prevention awareness and identification capabilities, and beware of being deceived. If you find the above-mentioned behaviors, you can call our customer service hotline to report.
6. The Shanghai Stock Exchange intends to establish a new generation of trading system, and the market will be ready by the end of 2023 at the earliest
On June 18th, at the “Data · Wisdom Conference” sponsored by Securities Communication Co., Ltd., Liu Zhengyan, director of the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s technology and financial technology department, introduced the technology strategy of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. According to him, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is currently establishing a new generation of trading system, which is planned to be in 2022. To be technically ready at the end of the year, and to be market ready at the end of 2023, and then choose an opportunity to release it to the public.
Huatai Securities: The probability of continued independent market on the Sci-tech Innovation Board is low
Due to weak domestic demand, especially infrastructure and consumption data, the year-on-year PPI may have peaked during the year, the Fed’s hawks and the GEM is greatly affected by northbound funds, and the domestic narrow liquidity is relatively wide, the Kechuang 50 significantly outperformed the market. , Is the only positive return index last week. Some investors believe that the current Sci-tech Innovation Board ≈ 2013 GEM, but the analysis of ROE scissors, growth drivers, and fundamental correlations is not highly comparable. The probability that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board continues to be independent of the market is low, and the resonance with other sectors is repaired. The probability is higher. Fundamentally, in the second half of the year, there are still support from the release of excess savings of overseas residents, the strength of domestic post-financing, and the continued recovery of corporate capital expenditures. The increase in ROE of A-shares in the interim and third quarter reports is still expected; in terms of liquidity, the recent strong US dollar + With a combination of not weak RMB, the net outflow pressure of northbound funds is expected to be limited.
Pay attention to the three main lines of industry comparison and two thematic investment main lines. From now to July, I believe that A-shares are turning to profit-driven, and continue to pay attention to the interim report market. Pay attention to 1) post-cyclical perspective, general and special machinery, highways, retail, special steel, state-owned banks; 2) scarce capacity perspective, copper, aluminum, fiberglass , Rare earths, semiconductors, decorative materials; 3) the perspective of profitability, general machinery, power electronics and automation, medical equipment, beer, panels, semiconductors, coal, decorative materials. Thematic investment focuses on two main lines: 1) the use of industrial waste heat and gas, solid waste treatment, recycled metals, CCER, etc. on the theme of carbon neutrality; 2) the theme of smart cars.
Industrial Securities: The market does not hesitate to do more, and the direction of technological growth is the main source of excess income
The three phases are superimposed on the stable period of the domestic economy, the warm policy period, and the liquidity-friendly period. The three periods coincided with the recovery period of overseas European and American economies, the period of loose liquidity, and the period of slowing down of the spread of the epidemic. Liquidity is mainly loose, “easy to loose but difficult to tighten”, and the global liquidity clock is still adding risk assets. Do not hesitate to do more in the market. The market is moving from the layout of the “centennial” market, slowly unfolding, and gradually entering a better situation, into the “summer market” of scorching hot, scorching sun, and shining sun. In this stage, the direction of technological growth will become the main source of the beautiful scenery and excess income of the “summer market”.
Industry configuration: “harvest cycle, layout growth”, growth is the main direction of “summer market”. 1) AIoT, the Internet of Everything, and China-made operating systems represented by Hongmeng are interconnected with smart terminals, mobile phones, cars, etc. The opportunities that bred are worthy of attention. Such as: computer, communication, electronics, etc. 2) Medicine, innovation, prosperity, technology and consumption attributes, focusing on medical equipment, medical services and other directions. 3) New energy chain. Comparable to the 10-year golden growth cycle of consumer electronics, under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, policy + demand + technological change is a three-wheel drive, focusing on: new energy materials, lithium battery equipment, automobiles, smart driving and other subdivisions. 4) High-end manufacturing equipment. It mainly focuses on the high-end and localization of Chinese manufacturing, and conforms to the needs of the industry and the development of the economy, and can focus on semiconductor equipment, military industry and other directions.
GF Securities: Global inflation trading has ended, and small-cap growth takes over
Global inflation trading has ended, and small-cap growth takes over during the shock period. The rise in bulk commodities will slow down significantly, gold still has room to fall, the upside of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is limited, and global stock markets are volatile but risks are controllable. The microstructure of A-shares has not been revised to a desirable level, and small-cap growth stocks have better odds. Further decline in inflation expectations will help strengthen the winning rate of small-cap growth stocks. Suggested configuration: small-cap growth with good immediate performance (sub-high-end liquor/computer/semiconductor), low PEG + price increase transmission + upward adjustment of profit forecast (fertilizer/glass). The thematic investment focuses on the improvement of the economy under “carbon neutrality” and the marginal increase in policies (new energy vehicles/photovoltaics).
Southwest Securities: A new round of technological innovation cycle has begun, grasping the big bull market in technology stocks
Since the 1990s, the rapid development of the technology industry has experienced at least three major technological waves, namely: the information wave represented by the PC, the network wave represented by the Internet, and the mobile Internet and cloud computing. Represents the mobile internet cycle. In contrast, a number of trillion-dollar bull stocks such as Intel, Microsoft, Facebook, Alibaba, and Apple have been born. In recent years, with the arrival of 5G, the interpretation of Moore’s Law and the evolution of deep learning, a new round of technological innovation cycle has begun, and the era of Internet of Everything + Intelligence has arrived.
As the wave of technology strikes again, there are seven major scientific and technological fields worthy of attention. The first is the semiconductor boom; the second is 5G as the Internet, connecting everything; the third is the explosion of IoT, and the range of data tentacles is getting larger and larger; the fourth is the increase of AI, and machines and people are one step closer; the fifth is the energy revolution, which will be human in the next 30 years Major themes; sixth is unmanned driving, the next hot spot for human-computer interaction; seventh is virtual reality, letting reality go into the virtual.
Guosheng Securities: Index space is suppressed, science and technology will become the key to victory
For the market as a whole, Taper does not pose a systemic risk, but the recent marginal changes in domestic interest rates also restrict the upward space of the index. 1. The current US market is still extremely liquid. In addition, at least until the August debt ceiling deadline and the completion of the “flood discharge” of US fiscal deposits, the US market liquidity will continue to be loose. In the medium and long term, there is no need to worry too much about the Fed Taper. If the U.S. economic recovery is strong and the fundamentals of U.S. companies continue to be repaired, it will provide strong support for U.S. stocks, similar to 13-15 years; if the U.S. economic recovery fails to meet expectations or even falls into recession again, the Fed will likely restart easing, similar to 2010 After QE1 ended in March, QE2 was launched in August. Therefore, no matter what the situation, the probability of systemic risk in US stocks and even the global market is relatively small. 2. Domestic interest rates began to rise marginally, suppressing the profit-making effect of the index. Since May, it has been emphasized that liquidity is the main contradiction in the short-term market. Both the long-term treasury bond interest rate and the short-term interest rate such as shibor have dropped significantly. But at present, interest rates in the domestic market are gradually picking up. In particular, the 1-year treasury bond has risen by 16.1bp from the low point in early June. Therefore, the subsequent lowering of the index is expected, and the market will still be dominated by shocks. It is recommended to grasp the structure market, select the structure, and focus on nuggets in science and technology.
Focus on the future, grasp the present, and deploy scientific innovation. Three clues to the “Nuggets” science and technology innovation board: 1) Develop a new direction for A-shares and benchmark the scarce subdivision track “unicorn”. 2) Performance growth has been leading the “high growth” of science and technology; 3) Since its listing, the retracement has been deep, has fallen below the issue price, and has a valuation price-performance ratio from the perspective of PEG; the petroleum and petrochemical and chemical industries that benefit from overseas demand Non-ferrous, photovoltaic and other sectors. Subdivision tracks such as new energy vehicles, semiconductors & consumer electronics, AI, CXO services & medical aesthetics, and sub-high-end liquors with strong certainty of the economy and high growth potential.