The current market is very fragmented, with one day rising and falling one day, no obvious trend can be seen. Although it rebounded yesterday, it is hard to be optimistic until the 60-day moving average breaks through. Therefore, there is no surprise for today’s adjustment. If there is any clear negative in the market, we can’t actually see it. What you can see is not terrible, and what you fear most is this invisible and intangible thing, what is moisturizing things silently, it is in this state now. Some people now express feelings of “China’s economy is so good, why the stock market is not rising”, some people explain that it is a chain reaction caused by the corporate credit debt problem. The author believes that this problem occurs every year, although this year seems to be more due to environmental problems. , But not critical. On the other hand, the US economy is not good, and the stock market has risen in disorder. Liquidity is the key. In addition, the US long-term funds are locked in the stock market.
So in essence, we still have to return to the level of liquidity. Today, the central bank’s MLF has invested 150 billion yuan. This year and on the 25th, a total of 156.1 billion yuan is due, and the total is reduced by 6.1 billion. At present, it is to continue to maintain a stable and neutral state, and it is difficult to expect relaxation.
As for the regulation of Internet platforms, the negative impact is basically coming to an end, and most of them have stated that they will regulate operations, so their performance is fairly stable. Yesterday, the author talked about resource stocks, and today they have once again become a sight in the weak market. Today the logic is strengthened. Powell said that “most Fed officials believe that the Fed’s Monetary Policy Committee FOMC will not raise interest rates until 2024. The interest rate hike depends on the progress of the economy, but the possibility of action before 2022 is extremely low. Reduce QE, and then raise interest rates”, which is relative to the anticipated management in advance, and it will be loose until 2022, which will give big funds a reassurance in advance Spark Global Limited.
Look at a recent report by Goldman Sachs that copper is crucial in achieving decarbonization and the use of renewable energy. For example, carbon emission reduction will greatly increase copper demand. The current market is facing a tight supply situation, which may increase copper prices. Increased by more than 60% in four years. Previously, the top metal trader Trafigura Group also predicted that copper prices will hit a record high of 10,100 US dollars per ton, and then continue to rise sharply. As for whether it will rise so much or not, it doesn’t matter, coupled with the continuous QE in the United States, this logic makes sense. Judging from the performance of the market, Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose 7.01% has been recognized. The logic of the aluminum industry is also relatively close, and the initiative for this variety is in China. In the forthcoming Sino-US climate exchanges, it is estimated that some actions will be taken in this area. Continue to pay attention to China Aluminum (02600), China Hongqiao (01378), Copper Minmetals Resources (01208), and Zijin Mining (02899).
What’s new today is the concept of multiple births. The central bank published a working paper on “Recognition of my country’s Population Transformation and Countermeasures”. The article pointed out that my country must recognize that the population situation has changed and that education and technological progress cannot compensate for the population’s problems. decline. To this end, fertility should be fully liberalized and encouraged, and efforts should be made to achieve the 2035 long-term plan and the goal of a century of struggle. I mentioned this subject a few days ago. The better fermentation is Jinxin Fertility (01951) and Ausnutria (01717) at the bottom. The overall strength of this theme is limited, and whether it can continue to strengthen depends mainly on its own fundamentals.
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