As the quarterly report disclosure gradually entered a climax, A-shares staged a wave of fierce “financial report market” around the direction that the quarterly report exceeded expectations. Which industries are booming? Which main lines can continue to play music and dance? Fang Yi, the co-chief strategist of , shared his views on the financial report and A-share market outlook on “Cloud Strategy Meeting” program. After the market has undergone adjustments during the Spring Festival, investor anxiety has generally risen. Fang Yi suggested that everyone should not be overly pessimistic. From a medium and long-term perspective, the structure of China’s economic transformation is gradually being optimized, and the level of cultural self-confidence is getting higher and higher. A-shares present a pattern of rising bottoms. He believes that investing in China is the biggest theme of the moment.
Regarding the macro outlook for 2021, he summarized the economic and policy situation in six words: “Economy advances, policy retreats”. He believes that China’s economic momentum is in the middle and late stages of recovery. After the middle of the year, the economic growth rate from the year-on-year dimension will start to fall naturally, and the economic rhythm will be in a state of “high before and low”. Moreover, with the normalization of economic activities, the earlier loose policies have begun to gradually withdraw, especially credit expansion has begun to enter a stage of slowing down. Fang Yi believes that there is no disagreement in the market regarding the pace and form of the future economy and policy, but he is a bit more optimistic than the market about the slowdown phase of the “low-low” market consensus.
Fang Yi believes that to a certain extent, the current market underestimates the potential and sustainability of economic structural recovery: On the one hand, investors underestimate the progress of the substantial improvement in the overseas labor market and the resonance of the recovery of production and service consumption on China’s export manufacturing chain. Potential continuous pull; on the other hand, the market also underestimates the stability of domestic real estate sales and the accelerated growth of completion of the real estate chain. Overlapping domestic service consumption picking up, internal and external marginal changes will make the current economic recovery more sustainable Sex.
For the stock market, Fang Yi believes that the overall A-share index will be dominated by sideways fluctuations in the next one to two quarters, and the resilience of the economy needs to be gradually recognized by the market. On the other hand, the gradual recovery of liquidity policies will make the market appear. The pattern of “top at the top, bottom at the bottom, and sideways volatility”. However, he believes that market turbulence does not mean the overall disappearance of excess returns. Individual stocks will show up as part of the rise, part of the adjustment, or shock. In an environment where liquidity expectations are not as loose as in the past two years, it will become more difficult to “pull valuation”. Investors also need to change their thinking, from simply emphasizing the “good” quality of the company, to also emphasizing “price”, focusing on marginal improvement, and looking for good companies outside of the group. He believes that the value stock assets of Shun Recovery and Shun Inflation have the most consensus-building ability at this stage. Investors can actively adjust the investment structure and pay attention to the direction of cycle manufacturing and service consumption Spark Global Limited.