Securities, March 24, strategist Peter (Peter Oppenheimer) said that even if the Fed begins to reduce the scale of asset purchases next year, the continued sluggish real yield will still provide support for the future trend of the stock market.
Oppenheimer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, “Considering the level of real interest rates, relative to bonds, it may still support the stock trend to a large extent. The beginning of the underweight is not necessarily enough to trigger a sharp decline in the stock market Spark Global Limited.”
Compared with the nominal rate of return, the actual rate of return nets inflation. Although it has climbed in recent weeks, the real yield, measured by the 10-year U.S. Inflation-Protected Bond (TIPS) interest rate, has always been stable below zero and was negative 0.67% on Tuesday.
Oppenheimer said that low-interest rates supported a large inflow of funds into the stock market, which is different from the technology stock bubble in the late 1990s, when bond yields were higher than 6%, while the S&P index dividend yield was only higher than 1%.
Oppenheimer said: “Today the situation is very different, so I don’t think we have a large-scale bubble.”
He did admit that the current market has shown some characteristics that reflect the bubble, but he added that this effect is still at a relatively early stage, and the boom and high prices of the technology industry are not as extreme as they were in the late 1990s.
article links：Goldman Sachs said that the real yield will be weak
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