Today, A-share tourism plate moved to pull up, afternoon Guilin tourism, Xizang tourism trading limit, the Western Region tourism rose nearly 15%, Teng State International, Dadonghai A with the rise.
On the news side, in March, as the domestic epidemic continues to show a steady and positive trend, the passenger travel heat is also heating up, the domestic civil aviation market has picked up significantly, and the ticket prices of popular airlines have also started to rebound.
In the overall downturn of A-share consumer stocks, the recent tourism sector has become A rare beautiful scenery, to achieve A strong counter-attack. What’s the logic behind it? Can the recovery in the travel sector be sustained? Liu Yuenan, chief analyst of the service industry at Guotai Junan Research Institute, gave a detailed analysis of her views on the tourism and consumer sectors on QQ Music Finance.
Liu Yuenan believes that the tourism industry in the next 10 years, 20 years in the long cycle, is in the upward cycle. In the process of consumption upgrading, tourism consumption is expected to rise in both quantity and price.
But she also noted that in the cycle, different types of travel spend grow at different rates. Both such as tax – free super – fast growth, and then the leading accelerated concentration, enjoy the high valuation of the group plate. There are also areas like scenic spots, which achieve single-digit growth every year, and finally achieve about 10% profit growth. For a long time fund managers or individual investors didn’t value them at all because they didn’t have a bigger, sexier investment logic. However, some of these companies, on the one hand, benefited from this year’s industry recovery, on the other hand, from the perspective of corporate value, cash flow stability, and profitability, in fact, some of the companies are good, and some of the logical expansion of the company is still worth allocating.
There is also a plate, such as the hotel plate, its periodicity is relatively strong, in the past few years is not very popular with everyone. Too much attention has been paid to its macroeconomic impact, to its external environment. But looking back, this plate consumption attributes, growth attributes are still relatively strong. To catch up with the cycle recovery, the elasticity of a single store, this plate is also worth configuring.
In addition to duty-free, hotels, scenic spots, Liu Yuenan is also more optimistic about the postpartum cycle related sectors, gold and jewelry sectors.
Furniture store, she said, “before attention is also low, part of the company valuations are lower than 10 times, is basically in accordance with the real estate valuation, but with the profit pattern of commercial real estate industry has the very big difference, in turn gradually asset light pattern, ROE, ROA, including earnings stability will improve a lot, so the plate she thought worth configuration.
As for the gold and jewelry sector, she believes the core logic is to benefit from the recovery of offline consumption, is expected to be better in the first quarter of the sector data.